The sudden and dramatic increase in the level of public satisfaction with the Government would suggest that last month's Budget was one of the most popular in recent years. The Fine Gael/Labour Parts Democratic Left Coalition is now more popular with the electorate than at any other time during its two years of existence. This may encourage the party leaders to opt for a pre summer general election, as offering the best prospect of success. But they are still under enormous pressure. Even though 50 per cent of the electorate is satisfied with the Government's performance, that sentiment does not translate into commensurate support for the Government parties. On the basis of this Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, the public is still committed to changing the incumbent government, as it has done on every occasion it has been given the opportunity since 1981.
The Opposition parties have much to reassure them in the findings of the poll. Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats are clear favourites to form the next government, both as a straightforward choice against the alternative of Fine Gael/Labour Party/ Democratic Left, and when voters intentions in relation to individual parties are totted up. When approached on an alternative government basis, however, the gap between the groups narrows from 15 to 12 points, with a great deal of uncertainty still evident amongst voters. Seventeen per cent have yet to decide what party they will support when the time comes.
The Government parties - and Fine Gael in particular looked to the Budget to provide them with a fresh start after their pre Christmas difficulties on crime and drugs; the mishandling of the Hepatitis "C" affair; mistakes concerning BSE and on the Michael Lowry/Ben Dunne affair. In that they appear to have succeeded and an 11 point jump in the Governments satisfaction rating is the result. Fine Gael has also made a small but significant advance, moving to its highest level of support since entering Government. Fianna Fail has dropped back a point. And, with the Progressive Democrats falling back two points, the Labour Party with static support has regained its position as the third largest party in the State. Democratic Left has also failed to benefit directly from the Budget.
The survey was conducted in advance of the ratification of Programme 2000 by the social partners. But, given the minimalist across the board impact of the Budget on party support levels, the promise of economic growth and industrial peace may not be as potent a factor in the general election as the Government parties would wish. Massaging the public feel good factor and increasing the level of satisfaction with the Government, is an important first step; but it will be of little comfort to the Coalition party leaders unless it can be converted into votes. The public appetite for political change is still strong, even if there is considerable disagreement within the electorate on the precise nature of what is required. In that regard there are a number of warning signs for party leaders. The two clear choices on offer: that of a Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats coalition, and a Fine Gael/Labour Party Democratic Left government, attract only 76 per cent of the electorate overall. And seventeen per cent of those questioned had still to make up their minds on how to vote. With such a volatile electorate to hand, the Rainbow Coalition is still in the game with a chance. But it is playing against the wind.