There was a sense of both pride and sadness about Bertie Ahern's appearance at the royal gallery of the House of Lords at Westminster yesterday, writes Vincent Browne
Pride in the deserved tributes paid to him, pride in his confident, measured, generous performance. Pride that an "ordinary" Dublin man could achieve such honour, although we know by now there is little "ordinary" about Bertie aside from his demeanour and personality.
Sadness about the looming cruelties that seem to be ahead for Bertie - defeat at the polls and excruciation at the tribunal.
For all the unfairness of the society that Bertie has helped to create, for all the exclusion, misery and torment so many still feel amidst the bountiful plenty that has surrounded us, it is only fair to credit him too with the economic success that has transformed so much of this society and, above all, his great contribution to peace on the island. If, as now seems likely, he loses office in next week's election, there will be confusion abroad about how a person so admired abroad could be rejected at home. There will be confusion among many abroad and at home about how he could be "hounded" (as will be said) by a tribunal established to examine issues unrelated to the issues that have now emerged.
This "ordinary" Dub has some extraordinary capacities, one of them alluded to by Tony Blair yesterday: that ability to absorb insult and disparagement and rarely to respond in kind or in anger (look at his restraint in response to the recent histrionics of Michael McDowell). Tony Blair said of him also: "There is no side to Bertie", and he is right. Not that he is not complex, not calculating, not manipulative, but there is an honesty (for the most part) in his dealings with others.
But there is trouble ahead. The downward projection in the opinion polls seems unstoppable and it is possible, as of now, that Fianna Fáil will lose 15 seats. The PDs seem certain to lose seats too. So no prospect of a return of the present government.
Sinn Féin will be the beneficiary of some of these seat losses, possibly three, which means it will be Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens that will be the beneficiary of the rest, giving that combination an adequate majority. Of course, things could change, especially after the leaders' debate, but, as of now, it seems improbable.
And then the looming hazard of the planning tribunal in the autumn and the ordeal Bertie will undergo in explaining the inexplicable about his personal finances. In many ways, fate might be kinder to him to release him from office now rather than have him face the tribunal as Taoiseach (that is, if the tribunal does not self-destruct in the meantime, a possibility that should not be underestimated).
And if he loses the election, the likelihood is that he will retire as leader of Fianna Fáil - he has said he will not stand in an election in five years' time.
In many ways he deserves to lose the election; the problem is the Opposition does not deserve to win it. Because in spite of the economic success the country has enjoyed, the scale of disadvantage is enormous. Just over two weeks ago, on Monday, April 30th, the Central Statistics Office published Measuring Ireland's Progress 2006. This showed the following:
More than 6 per cent of men and 7 per cent of women in the Republic were in consistent poverty in 2005. The proportion of Irish people at risk of poverty, after pensions and social transfer payments were taken into account, was 20 per cent in 2005. This was one of the highest rates in the EU 27.
The effect of pensions and social transfers on reducing the at-risk-of-poverty rate was low in the Republic compared with other EU 27 states. In 2004, social protection expenditure in the Republic was 17 per cent of gross domestic product - just over half of the rate in Sweden.
The pupil-teacher ratio at primary level in the school year 2003/2004 was one of the highest in the EU 27 at 18.3. Twelve of the other 26 EU member states had a pupil-teacher ratio of less than 15 at primary level.
Early school leavers represented 12.3 per cent of the 18-24 age group in the Republic in 2006. The unemployment rate for early school leavers in this age group was 19 per cent in 2006 compared with an unemployment rate of 8.2 per cent for all persons aged 18-24.
For decades we were told we had to create wealth before we could distribute it. Now we have created enormous wealth but there are no proposals to redistribute it, no plans on the part of any of the parties - bar the Greens, the Socialist Party and the People-before-Profit alliance, and, perhaps, Sinn Féin - to do anything about it. There are no plans to engage in any comprehensive redistribution that would improve the proportion of social protection we provide, to take everyone out of consistent poverty and to reduce to close to zero those "at risk" of poverty. Amid all the protestations about wanting to discuss the "issues" in the campaign, these, the salient issues, are never referred to.