Preliminary census figures paint a picture of Irish society undergoing a dramatic transformation. Inward migration, coupled with a natural increase, has pushed the population beyond the four million mark for the first time in more than a century, bringing with it all the benefits and problems that such rapid growth entails. The cost of extraordinary economic expansion, involving long-term planning and social implications, will now have to be comprehensively addressed.
One of the immediate tasks facing the Government is probably the simplest, and involves its attitude to constituency boundaries and the holding of a general election. Population changes have distorted the voter/TD ratios established by the Constituency Commission when it established existing boundaries. Dublin West actually breaches the requirements of the Constitution. And this is likely to be confirmed when final figures are published next April. Election candidates were chosen on the basis of current boundaries and they have been campaigning hard for almost two years. A large-scale revision is, therefore, unlikely. The Minister for the Environment, Dick Roche has ruled out changes based on preliminary figures. So, rather than risk a High Court challenge, the Government may opt for a March election or, alternatively, authorise a late review involving Dublin West.
In the past 10 years, the population of the State has grown by more than half a million, and services of all kinds have been struggling to keep up. On the positive side, the threat posed by a greying population to State-funded pensions has receded into the distance. But demands for public services such as education, healthcare, community welfare and housing are growing in the commuter belts surrounding our major cities.
The picture is complicated by the fact that up to 10 per cent of the population is now composed of migrants, with their particular needs and divergent cultures. Strenuous efforts will have to be made by State authorities to integrate these people and to minimise areas of potential difficulty.
We have all basked in the glow of an economy growing by 5 per cent a year; increasing wealth and income levels; burgeoning exchequer returns and historically low employment levels. Growth has been widely spread across the country, but the population imbalance between east and west remains. The Government's spatial strategy shows no real sign of having an impact. The physical infrastructure of the State is being slowly upgraded and social services are improving. But the hardest part of the job remains to be tackled: how to build an inclusive, caring and egalitarian society that will cherish all citizens according to their needs. At the moment, we have one of the most unequal societies in the developed world. The task before us, while economic growth remains strong and racial tension is limited, is to develop structures that will underpin and promulgate the ideals of a republic.