Some views about the EU that emerge from a State-commissioned survey on the Lisbon Treaty rejection show the Irish electorate living in fairyland, writes Mark Hennessy
IRELAND'S ECONOMIC woes over the summer have distracted the public from the consequences of the Lisbon Treaty, while other EU states have had Georgia on their mind.
However, the issue is about to come back into focus with a vengeance as the evenings shorten and few, if any, new great ideas have emerged in the months since June.
The scale of the challenge facing the Government is only too evident from a reading of the Government-commissioned Millward Brown research published yesterday. Ireland's people are the most enthusiastic in the EU towards the idea of the EU, but yet still manage to be among the most suspicious about its mechanics.
Careful to keep all options open, Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin continued to pour soothing oil on the wounds left by Lisbon yesterday.
The Government is still playing for time, essentially hoping, like Micawber, that something will turn up that will prevent them having to face up to the crisis.
For now, the immediate task is to get beyond October's EU summit without demands for action from other member states, and then worry about the December meeting. It does not want to say that a second referendum is the only option - even though, privately, it knows that it is - for fear of the electorate's anger.
And this is not just the anger of those who voted No. Politicians of all hues know that even some Yes voters threaten not to vote the same way again. The Government, said Martin, must do better in communicating "the message of the European Union" to the public.
If this is what it depends on, then God help us all. No other government has ever managed to explain the EU properly to its citizens.
Few, it can be argued, have ever really tried. Certainly, successive Irish governments were happy for voters to view Brussels as a bottomless pot of money and little more.
Alas, the pot of money is running low. In 2002, it was able to bring voters back to the polling station because the Nice Treaty could be pared down to one issue.
Essentially, Irish voters were asked, "Do you want to be seen as the ingrates who left half of Europe out in the cold after 50 years of communism?" Unwilling to be unpopular, voters came back with a different result.
Next time - if there is a next time - Lisbon will not become any easier to explain. The public's knowledge of the EU and its institutions - regardless of education standards and despite 35 years of membership - is woeful. Just half of voters knew that MEPs are directly elected by EU citizens. Half did not know how many states are in the EU.
And it is not just we the public, remember. Tánaiste Mary Coughlan did not have a clue how many commissioners big states had.
The research, which cost €163,000, merits careful reading, and sounds many warning notes about the dangers surrounding the holding of a second poll.
Since the referendum, Martin has been too free with his use of soothing oils, leaving the public unaware of the political realities looming for Ireland.
Six out of 10 believe that Ireland's best interests are best pursued by being fully involved in the EU, while fewer than one in five believes less involvement is better. Yet, more than four in every 10 of voters believe that the No vote has "had no impact" on Ireland's EU influence. One in eight believes it has been strengthened.
These are the views of people who live in fairytales. Ireland's position has been irreparably damaged. And, in time, that will become obvious.
Essentially, the Government must simplify the question, though to do that it would have to ratify parts of the treaty without going to the people.
This would require the sanction of the Supreme Court, and Brian Cowen has shown little in his character to signify that he is ready to play that high-wire act. Certainly, the Government can get clarifications and declarations from other EU states about some of Ireland's major concerns - such as abortion and neutrality - but it has got them before.
On the European Commission, all 27 EU states might accept that every country should retain a permanent place at the table.
If so, the Government could argue that one of voters' main concerns, the loss of influence, had been dealt with, even if many woefully misunderstood the issue.
Equally, the No camp could argue that it was proof positive that a bad deal had been done in the first place, so why should voters trust the Government now? So far, Ireland's EU partners have remained relatively quiet, and trod carefully around Ireland's sensitivities. But for how long more will this go on?
Meanwhile, the Government must watch its flanks. Fine Gael, for the first time ever, is showing signs it is going to do little to help.
Labour's Eamon Gilmore has gone further, indicating that the party may not even be there to be depended upon if a straight re-run is tried.
Meanwhile, there is the economy. Back in June, one of the key issues "was a feeling of pessimism about current and short-term economic trends. It was frequently mentioned in the groups that, if the referendum had taken place 12-18 months ago, there would have been little difficulties in having it voted through," states the Millward Brown report. If that was then, one can only imagine what the answer would be now.
Up to now, it has been argued in many quarters that an economically-chastened Irish voter would offer a different result if asked the same question today.
Instead, the research - a snapshot of public opinion, admittedly, and not the Gospel - indicates that Ireland is becoming more inward-looking and protectionist.
In truth, the research has one core message. Ireland has not got a prayer of sorting out what it wants to do - or can do - about Lisbon until late 2009, perhaps well into 2010.