With the Republicans in San Diego clearly determined to play a Blair like game by not rocking the boat before the presidential election, Gen Colin Powell's dazzling performance on the opening day of their convention stands out as an event of intriguing potential. Last November, long before he ever joined the party, he ruled out any possibility of allowing himself to become its presidential candidate. His decision cleared the way for the lack lustre Robert Dole, and what still could be a humiliating defeat at the hands of Mr Clinton.
His standing now, as a neophyte Republican, is such that alone among the opening speeches his was not cleared in detail beforehand by the leadership, and of all the speakers his contribution was by far the longest. In a year in which the party is dominated by right wing commitments on abortion, illegal immigration and ending affirmative action on behalf of minorities, his was the only voice - others were silenced in the interests of unity - that reminded delegates of the "American dream", the right to choose and the value of inclusive policies.
It was paradoxical, perhaps, that Gen Powell's speech was cheered to the rafters by a party which would not have been willing to see him carrying the election banner this year. His personal charisma partially explains the phenomenon, but there is more than a little calculation too: by broadening the appeal of the Republican campaign, by moving it more to the centre, and by giving his wholehearted support to Mr Dole as the "most qualified" candidate, Gen Powell is perceived as having turned what had begun to look like a one horse race into a more equal contest.
This impression will be reinforced if, as appears likely, Mr Dole ties him more closely to his campaign by undertaking to give him a major post in his administration if elected, and if Gen Powell says he is willing to serve. But this course is not entirely free of danger for the Republican candidate. Mr Dole is now faced with the daunting challenge of not being outshone by the former general's oratory when he addresses delegates himself. He has to oversome the disadvantages of his own lack of debating skill and the straitjacket imposed by the election manifesto.
It is hardly surprising if, having reaffirmed his position as the most popular Republican, Gen Powell's motives for refusing to seek the nomination a year ago are now being reassessed. His reason then was that his family had dissuaded him on security grounds. But his obvious appetite for politics and his clearly demonstrated political ability make that seem less and less convincing. If Mr Dole is defeated in November, Gen Powell will be well positioned to rally a fragmented and disheartened party and outmanoeuvre the radical right. His reminder at San Diego that, as a black of poor origins, he has "lived the American dream to the fullest" could then take on prophetic proportions.