Inside Politics:Major shifts in Irish politics have come about when one party has managed to capture the mood of the times more accurately than its rivals. With the election campaign due to be called in a month or so it appears that the tide is running strongly in favour of the Greens. They now have a great chance of getting into government for the first time, regardless of how the bigger parties do, writes Stephen Collins.
The 2007 general election could be a landmark for the Greens, in the way the 1987 election marked the big breakthrough for the Progressive Democrats or the 1992 campaign was dominated by Labour's "Spring tide." The challenge for the Greens is to build on their current momentum when the campaign proper begins and translate extra support into seats.
The election of the first Green to the Northern Assembly is just another sign that the party's hour may be at hand.
If it can harness the mood in its favour, the party should be in a position to negotiate its way into government for the very first time. The dilemma for the other parties is whether to take on the Greens now, and attempt to halt their progress, or treat them more politely as potential partners. Apart from the PDs, that is what everybody else appears to be doing, at least for the moment.
What is so enticing for the Greens is that recent polls suggest it may be impossible to form any kind of government without them. For a start Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte will need them to have a chance of removing Fianna Fáil from office. While the Greens have stayed out of a formal alliance, the party has made it clear that a rainbow government with Fine Gael and Labour is their first preference.
However, if the numbers for a rainbow don't add up, because Fine Gael and Labour don't gain enough seats, there is every chance a Fianna Fáil-Green combination could put it together. Senior Ministers like Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey have acknowledged this in public.
The lesson for smaller parties in coalition, as Michael McDowell has pointed out, is they can exert a disproportionate influence on government policy if they know what they want. The other side of the coin is that a small party in coalition has to act pragmatically by putting up with some things it doesn't like in order to achieve its priorities.
Everything will depend on how well the Greens do. If they actually win the 8 per cent or so suggested by recent polls, the party will significantly increase its number of Dáil seats from its current six. On a strictly proportional basis that number would double to 12 and, given the party's ability to attract transfers, a gain of this order is not impossible.
The Greens have clearly benefited from the fact that their core issues, such as energy supply and climate change, have now come to dominate global politics. The EU summit in Brussels was another demonstration of just how seriously these issues are being taken at the highest level.
Of course, Green policies have much wider implications than the party's current feel-good image might suggest. They espouse a range of policies on such issues as taxation, planning, farming and foreign policy that are capable of generating strong opposition as well as support from a broad range of voters. However, despite some sniping from Fianna Fáil and the PDs, the Greens have not, so far, been subject to sustained negative campaigning.
One thing the party will have to do in an election campaign is explain how it proposes to implement its proposed radical overhaul of the tax and welfare system. The Greens want to give everybody, whether they are in paid employment or not, the entitlement to claim a significant tax credit. That will involve the State giving money to people who are not in the paid workforce.
It is an ambitious policy with the capacity to secure positive social objectives and will be clearly attractive to a range of groups, including people working in the home. The knock-on effect in terms of the impact on jobs and industry is another matter and that is where the party is likely to come under real pressure.
Two of its newest TDs - finance spokesman Dan Boyle and transport spokesman Eamon Ryan - have been effective Dáil performers and communicators. Their skills will have to be deployed during the campaign when real policy choices will have to be explained and the vague association with a cleaner environment and better planning will not be enough to get through robust political debate.
One of the ironies about the growth of the Greens is that it has mainly occurred in wealthy urban constituencies. It is no coincidence that four of the party's six seats are in constituencies where the PDs also have a TD. It is hard to see the Green approach to tax credits going down well with some of its wealthy constituents. On the other hand, polls have shown the party has a much greater appeal to women and they are much more likely than men to be swayed by the benefits of a tax policy that caters for those outside the paid workforce.
The Greens have been represented in the Dáil since 1989 but have never been in power. Getting into office will be difficult, but the real challenge will be what can be achieved once that goal has been reached.