Sinn Féin and the DUP have proven themselves masters of getting elected, writes Sydney Elliott. It remains to be seen whether they can govern
The Northern election produced changes in the individual and party composition of the Assembly. Some MLAs had stood down and others were rejected by the electorate but 79 of the outgoing members were returned, along with 29 new members.
Sinn Féin with 11 and DUP with 10 were the main contributors of new members. Among the new members were seven women, including Anna Lo for Alliance, the first MLA from a Chinese background.
The main winners from the election were the two largest parties, DUP and Sinn Féin, who had gains of 4.4 per cent and 2.6 per cent of the first preference votes respectively.
These changes were also reflected in seat gains, six for the DUP (or three if the UUP defections in January 2004 are excluded), and four for Sinn Féin.
Two small centrist parties, Alliance and the Greens, increased their vote share by 1.6 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively, and both added a seat, bringing Alliance to seven and giving the Greens their first seat in the Assembly - in North Down, the old seat of Lord Craigavon. This was also the best Alliance performance since 1982.
Nine Conservative candidates only managed to poll 0.5 per cent of the vote, a much poorer showing than their first election in 1992.
The situation for the UUP and the SDLP continued to get worse. The UUP dropped to fourth with 14.9 per cent of first preference votes, a fall of 7.7 per cent; the SDLP fared almost as bad with 15.2 per cent, a fall of 1.8 per cent. By winning some seats late in the count, the UUP ended up with 18 seats to 16 for the SDLP. The UUP had lost six seats since 2003 (or three if defections were excluded) and the SDLP two. Since the first Assembly election in 1998, both parties had together lost 34 seats. The SDLP had appeared to make progress in 2005 in checking the rise in Sinn Féin support. However, the chart shows that the gap continued to widen in 2007. For the UUP, the chart shows that DUP dominance was growing in 2005 and it continued in 2007. The DUP has twice as many votes and seats as UUP, a very difficult situation to reverse.
What generalisations can we make about the NI Assembly election of 2007?
First, the dominance of the DUP among unionists and Sinn Féin among nationalists increased significantly. Both proved their capacity to mobilise supporters and to organise them through vote management to deliver the maximum result.
It is difficult to persuade voters to reduce support for the big personalities but examples in West Belfast and East Belfast, affecting Gerry Adams and Peter Robinson, showed that it could happen with advantage to their party. Both parties capitalised on running their local MP in the contest to pull the vote in and then spread it to other party candidates.
For example, in West Belfast, Gerry Adams topped the poll with 6,029 first preferences, but the four other candidates ranged between 4,254 and 4,715, where the quota was 4,828. Adams's surplus of 1,201 transferred mainly to Sue Ramsey and Paul Maskey and 87 per cent of the transfers remained with the party. Ramsey was elected and 93 per cent of her surplus transferred within the party to place Maskey within 54 votes of election. Ultimately three Sinn Féin candidates and Alex Attwood (SDLP) were swept in, leaving Diane Dodds (DUP) out of the Assembly. The single transferable vote had not protected the constituency's one "minority" candidate.
Second, there was no significant support for an alternative negative political stance, whether unionist or republican. The attempt by Bob McCartney to give expression to a unionist anti-St Andrews Agreement position may have been commendable, given the shift in the DUP position, but the election option rather than a referendum undermined his campaign capacity. He could not field a candidate in each constituency and in the end he was six of the 16 candidates. The UKUP total was 1.5 per cent and the party leader lost his North Down seat in the process. Similarly, on the republican side, the number of I ndependent anti-policing candidates and the presence of six Republican Sinn Féin candidates for the first time did not damage Sinn Féin's well-tested electoral machine.
Third, while the nationalist vote has continued to rise, that of the two main unionist parties has fallen. Previously they would have been bumping along at about 50 per cent. In 2007, the UUP plus DUP share stood at 45 per cent.
After the election the focus of attention shifted to the next deadline, March 26th, when ministerial posts would be allocated. The St Andrews Agreement required that the nomination for first minister, made by the largest party, and for deputy first minister, made by the second-largest party, had to occur on March 14th. However, the NI (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006 did not carry any such requirement. In his open letter to newly elected MLAs the Secretary of State merely stated that he would be asking Dr Paisley and Martin McGuinness to confirm to him that they were content to be first minister and deputy first minister respectively in a restored Assembly before March 25th. On March 25th the Secretary of State will move a restoration order to end the suspension of the NI Assembly, effective since October 2002. The next day the NI Assembly will form an executive by running d'Hondt and all ministers will affirm the new pledge of office.
Running d'Hondt in 1999 provoked quite a lot of interest. On the first occasion, in July 1999, the two nationalist parties proceeded to award the portfolios among themselves, in the absence of unionists, and in the knowledge that the outcome was illegal. On the second occasion, there appeared to be no prior knowledge of individual party preferences. The result was the calling of two "time outs" as parties considered their options in the light of previous party choices. For example, when neither unionist party chose Education it opened the door to the nomination of Martin McGuinness by Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams. Their second choice of Health proved equally contentious.
Despite continuing doubts about the formation of an executive, we are aware of the DUP's preferences for Finance and Personnel. Given the party seat share in the election the parties have the following choices: DUP 1st, 3rd, 7th, 9th; Sinn Féin 2nd, 6th, 8th; UUP 4th, 10th; SDLP 5th. It is unknown whether party departmental choices will be known before March 26th. Despite the poorer unionist turnout and a reduced number of seats, the Executive's composition will be four DUP, two UUP, three SF and one SDLP (see table). This outcome of six unionists and four nationalists is the same as would have resulted in November 2003 if the Assembly had met and d'Hondt was run. If there is any structural reorganisation of departments into a lower number than 10, then six departments would produce three unionists and three nationalists, seven would give four unionists and three nationalists, eight would give four unionists and four nationalists and nine would give five unionists and four nationalists. If 10 were retained and an 11th added for policing and justice, then the choice would fall to SDLP.
While there is guarded optimism about the March 26th deadline, there can be no guarantee about the future stability of the executive. The St Andrews Agreement was reached between the UK and Irish governments and the parties persuaded later to come on board. It was a triumph for diplomacy. However, the two main political parties, the DUP and Sinn Féin, have still to address one another directly and there are outstanding issues over a peace dividend and other matters.
Finally, coalitions, even inclusive coalitions, have a momentum towards minimum coalition and the acquisition of departments from smaller parties. The DUP sometimes talks about a temporary arrangement for a period of years. It seems we may need St Patrick to be especially kind to us this year!
Dr Sydney Elliott is senior lecturer in the school of politics, international studies and philosophy at Queen's University Belfast.