Ireland faces a grave strategic choice later this year when the electorate votes again on whether to ratify the Treaty of Nice, following its rejection in last June's referendum. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern said at the European Council in Barcelona at the weekend that the consequences of a second No would be "very grim" for this State. He secured agreement to a political declaration affirming that the treaty does not affect our military neutrality; a declaration which will be put before the next EU summit in Seville.
The question many will ask is whether this will be enough to persuade sufficient of those who voted against the treaty (or the even greater number who abstained in a 35 per cent poll) to support it next time. The Government believes it will - together with substantial reform of Oireachtas scrutiny of EU legislation and the role of the National Forum on Europe in raising awareness of the issues involved.
Critics say a political declaration on neutrality changes nothing, although it could clarify for voters that Nice contains no such legal threat, despite statements to the contrary from the treaty's opponents. A legally binding protocol excluding Ireland from participation in the EU's Rapid Reaction Force, as called for by them, would be unacceptable to the Government - and to the majority of voters who want Ireland to participate in EU peacekeeping and other tasks mandated by the United Nations.
It will therefore fall to the new Government formed after the general election to conduct a referendum campaign capable of mobilising support for Ireland's continued full participation in the mainstream of EU affairs. That is what is at stake in a second referendum on Nice. It will be up to Mr Ahern and his colleagues, as well as the main Opposition parties and leading interest groups in Irish society, to spell out vigorously and precisely why it would indeed be "very grim" for Ireland if it voted No again. Given the refusal of the other member-states to renegotiate the treaty, which they regard as indispensable to allow the EU enlarge by 10 more members in 2004, Ireland would be marginalised politically, economically and diplomatically by such a decision.
That would gravely affect the Government's capacity to influence the kinds of issues discussed at Barcelona this weekend, including economic reforms, liberalisation of utilities, trade protectionism and major foreign policy issues in the Middle East. The summit registered only modest progress on them; but, as always in EU affairs, it matters most to have a full seat and voice at the table. A second No to Nice would also reduce Ireland's influence on the much more important decisions about the future of Europe currently under way, which will require another referendum in two years' time. That could profoundly alter this State's position in Europe and the world.