It has taken the death of President Hafez al-Assad of Syria to bring home fully how indispensable that country remains to the achievement of peace and stability in the Middle East. The peace process there will inevitably be slowed down as his son Bashar takes up the mantle of neo-dynastic rule and consolidates it against several potential sources of opposition. But assuming he does so effectively, the prospects for peace would seem to be improved by the passing of power to a new generation.
Syria remains at the centre of regional affairs by virtue of its geopolitical position and the tenacity of President Assad's long-standing commitment to a universal peace based on United Nations resolutions. That commitment was widely admired in the Arab world. It was seen as an affirmation of Arab rights against Western encroachment and Israel's military and political power - despite the inflexible negotiating tactics that flowed from it when others were prepared to be more compromising. Assad's political gift of stability was likewise admired, despite the ruthless and calculating repression on which it was based and the fact that his country's economy was frozen into comparative backwardness by the isolation required to sustain such a form of military-backed rule.
President Assad held out to the end for the full return of the Golan Heights to Syria, including the shores of the Sea of Galilee by which he often said he played as a child, but which is the source of over 40 per cent of Israel's water supply. Despite the Israeli prime minister, Mr Ehud Barak's, willingness to negotiate, many were surprised by Assad's refusal to compromise on that principle when he met President Clinton in Geneva earlier this year. It will be very difficult for his son and successor to adopt a less demanding approach in the short term, unless there are substantial compensating advantages for Syria.
Mr Assad's reliability as a rational antagonist was demonstrated when Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in the last month. The risk that a wider Middle East war might be provoked by Syria's refusal to exert pressure on the Hizbullah movement was constrained, despite Assad's irritation at being so upstaged. Syria remains the indispensable power broker in Lebanon as that country adjusts to these new realities. President Assad's relations with the Palestinian leadership were tense. He sought to exert as much control over their negotiations with Israel as possible, partly to preserve his own political position as an Arab leader, partly to ensure that compromises reached there did not set precedents for Syria.
The new president, Bashar al-Assad, comes to power with much apparent goodwill at home and abroad. He represents a younger, more outward-looking generation anxious to develop the country and free up its archaic economy. Simply because of its comparative isolation and weakness, that could be a risky business. So could consolidation of his rule against potential opposition from family factions and dissident military officers.
But these do not look to be insuperable obstacles to the new ruler - and the longer term prize of an honourable regional peace accord should sustain his efforts to modernise the regime he has inherited.