The Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP have lost considerable ground in the Westminster elections in Northern Ireland. The shift in public support towards the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein represents a continuation of recent trends and poses a huge threat to the UUP and the SDLP. But the full extent of that political movement will not become clear until the results of the local elections are announced early next week.
On the basis of what is already known, however, the UUP leader and First Minister, Mr David Trimble, is likely to come under considerable pressure within his party because of the losses that have been sustained. When counting ended last night, his party had lost five seats, but had balanced that by gains in the constituencies of North Down and South Antrim. The UUP had a final tally of 6, down from a pre-election 9. In the same vein, the SDLP trailed Sinn Fein for the first time as Mr Gerry Adams prepared to lead a four member team to Westminster.
The failure by the SDLP to maintain its lead over Sinn Fein will generate considerable soul-searching in the coming months as the party sets out to re-invent itself. The DUP was also a big winner, increasing its representation at Westminster from 3 to 5 seats, taking Derry East, Strangford and Belfast North. Sinn Fein won extra seats from the UUP in Tyrone East and Fermanagh-South Tyrone, to secure one more than the SDLP.
The extent of political ground-shift in Northern Ireland can be gauged by looking at the last Westminster elections. It was only four years ago. But those years have seen the birth of the Belfast Agreement, the further fragmentation of unionism, elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly and the growth of Sinn Fein. In 1997, the UUP took 33 per cent of the vote, as against 14 per cent for the DUP. One year later, that 19 point gap was reduced to 4 points (22 per cent to 18 per cent) in the Assembly elections. Preliminary results from the present contest has the parties running neck and neck.
Sinn Fein made spectacular gains within the nationalist community at the expense of the SDLP. Four years ago, the SDLP took 24 per cent of the vote in the Westminster elections, compared to 16 per cent for Sinn Fein. In the Assembly elections, that 8 point gap was halved when the SDLP took 22 per cent of the vote, against 17.6 per cent for Sinn Fein. And indications from yesterday's count put Sinn Fein ahead of the SDLP for the first time. The other striking development was that the nationalist vote had risen to 46 per cent in this election.
The destination of the 18 Westminster seats will have an obvious impact on the Belfast Agreement and on negotiations that are due to commence between the two Governments and the pro-Agreement parties in about ten days time. Those talks are due to consider such outstanding issues as policing, decommissioning and demilitarisation. Indications from the pro parties in recent weeks pointed to a willingness to underpin the Belfast Agreement and to make further advances. There must be no going back to the sterilities of the past. Pro-Agreement politicians must deliver.