Changes in Europe, including enlargement, are not without their downside. Will participation in the EU remain in the Republic's interests? asks Dan O'Brien
Never since the emergence of the modern state system 3½ centuries ago has a small country enjoyed an international environment as benign as the Republic has over recent decades. Apart from freedom from external military threat - thanks to geography and a de-facto American security guarantee - this has mostly been because of EU membership.
Ireland has permanent access to the largest market in the world guaranteed by the rule of European law. Relatedly, tidal waves of jobs-rich foreign capital have dynamised its once-sclerotic economy. And we have been the recipients of some of the largest cash transfers any sovereign state has ever been gifted.
For all these gains one would expect, at the very least, some rules and regulations imposing constraints on freedom of policy manoeuvre. That, after all, is the definition of multilateralism, and the EU is the world's multilateral organisation par excellence. Amazingly there have been hardly any ill-suited to Ireland.
Heretofore, where European integration has been deepest - subsidies and economics - it has been almost tailor-made to Ireland's advantage. Where integration would have imposed unwelcome constraint - taxation, judicial matters and foreign policy, for instance - it has been less advanced. In short, we have enjoyed all the gains of multilateralism, but few of the costs.
This happy circumstance was always too good to last, and the best-of-both-worlds era is now drawing to a close. Though tomorrow's enlargement is generally good for Europe, and therefore for Ireland too, it will not be without its downside.
Looking narrowly, competition for foreign investment will intensify as the central Europeans, thanks to membership, become more attractive to globalising firms. Happily, this effect is likely to be limited, not least because Ireland's environment for doing business is still better. Widening the focus, greater opportunities for Irish firms in the bigger EU will offset this negative, partially at least.
Although it is almost vulgar to mention it after 35 years of receiving Brussels largesse, Ireland will start paying for membership in 2007, and the bill will be all the bigger because the new countries' needs are great. Though this is hardly cause for taxpayer joy, only the most myopic would grumble. And even if they do, there is the consolation of knowing that as one of the paymasters the country's clout will be increased.
Enlargement will affect Ireland's influence in other ways, too. Instead of 14 other countries trying to have their say, there will be 24. A small country's voice could be lost in the cacophony. But in Europe, as anywhere else, whether people listen to you is less about how loud your voice is and more about what they have to learn from you and whether they think you are worth a hearing.
Because the new members are so impressed by how Ireland has exploited its EU membership and are transfixed by its tigerish economy, they tend to hold the country in high esteem. This will actually increase influence, particularly important now because some members of long standing resent what they see as Ireland's free-riding (low profits tax is a particular bugbear).
Enlargement will also affect relations between Europe and the US, which show no sign of returning to happier pre-Iraq days. Widening differences in interests (and how these are perceived and pursued) make that a near-certainty.
This is profoundly worrying for Ireland because its relations with the US are so important. Politically, the US continues to be an even-handed influence in the North, and economically about one in eight jobs depends directly or indirectly on US companies. If the continents draw further apart and a chasm opens up in mid-Atlantic, Ireland will be closest to its edge.
In the EU of 15, France's sometimes unnecessarily confrontational approach towards the US is dominant since the recent dramatic change of government in Spain, and of the big member countries only Britain cleaves closely to the United States.
The pro-American new members (and Poland in particular) will shift the centre of gravity back towards greater balance between the two positions, hopefully lessening the risk of continental drift.
Compared to the last enlargement (a decade ago three rich, small and neutral countries joined), this one will have its downsides, even if the pros outweigh the cons. But combined with the soon-to-be-agreed EU constitution, will EU membership remain in Ireland's interests?
The answer is Yes emphatically. To see why, consider Ireland's defining characteristic as a player in the international system: small size and relative powerlessness. The over-riding strategic objective of the weak is to constrain the powerful because when interests collide the former will always come off worse (the Irish understand this better than anyone, having endured the unwanted attentions of a powerful country for most of the last millennium).
For small countries, international law is the only way to achieve this, because the rule of law is the best protection the weak have against the strong. And because the EU is the only example in history of sovereign states accepting the rule of non-national law in any meaningful way, being fully engaged in Europe's highly effective multilateral system not only brings with it good things, it prevents bad things from happening.
And if this sounds a little academic then look at history post-independence but pre-EU. In the 1930s and again in the 1960s Britain unilaterally slapped taxes on Irish exports. The results for Ireland were, respectively, disastrous (the Economic War) and damaging. Because European law forbids such unilateralism, never again can any other EU state threaten our prosperity or use its economic clout to get what it wants politically.
All too often in international affairs, choices facing countries are between the awful and the unpalatable. Fortunately the EU, post-enlargement and with a constitution, will be neither for Ireland. While it will not be as good as it has been, staying deeply embedded in the European multilateral system will remain the strategic imperative for the protection and pursuit of Ireland's interests as far into the future as one can see.
Dan O'Brien is senior Europe editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit. He will participate in a discussion on EU enlargement on RTÉ Radio 1 from midday tomorrow