Public ahead of their leaders in quest for Middle East peace

World View: Paul Gillespie According to Mustafa Bargouti, a prominent Palestinian activist, the Palestinian and Israeli publics…

World View: Paul Gillespie According to Mustafa Bargouti, a prominent Palestinian activist, the Palestinian and Israeli publics are more ready than their leaders to reach a peace agreement.

He told National Public Radio in the United States about a discussion with an Israeli he met on a plane. "It shocked me we are so much in agreement. If we could conclude agreement we could have done it in one hour in this plane."

This is heartening after a week in which little came of visits by the Palestinian and Israeli prime ministers, Abu Mazin and Ariel Sharon, to the White House for talks with George Bush, despite some progress in disengagement on the ground.

Margouti's view is borne out by recent opinion polling among the two populations which contradicts stereotypes of incompatibility put about by fundamentalists on both sides.

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The Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PRS) polled Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, Jordan the West Bank and Gaza about their preferences on the right of return to homes seized during the Israeli war of independence in 1948, as set out in UN resolution 194 of December 1948 and specified in the roadmap for peace agreed last year by the US, the UN, the EU and Russia.

The poll found 10 per cent of those surveyed (373,673 of the total refugee population) would choose to return to Israel, 31 per cent would opt for a Palestinian state, 23 per cent go to a designated area in Israel to be swapped later with a Palestinian area after compensation, 17 per cent stay in the host country with compensation, while 13 per cent would refuse all these options.

This is a far cry from the picture painted to frighten Israelis of millions returning to disrupt the Jewish state during the last intense period of talks three years ago. Considering that Israel has successfully absorbed one million Russians in the last decade, it is certainly do-able.

The poll has also upset Palestinian militants, who wrecked the researchers' office when it was launched, for fear that it would undermine or distort their negotiating position.

Professional critics say the questions understate the number who wish to return to Israel, the distinction between recognising the right of return and exercising the option to do so, and the central principle of compensation that distinction is intended to highlight.

Another recent PSR poll, of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, finds majority support for the roadmap, for recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people, for a ceasefire and the end of the armed intifada.

There is increased support for Hamas to 22 per cent against Al Fatah's 26 per cent, while the unaffiliated stand at 37 per cent and of all Islamists at 31 per cent.

This mix of Palestinian attitudes helps to make sense of Abu Mazin's negotiating position in his talks with George Bush. While the roadmap emphasises the need to end violent resistance and acts of terrorism, the Palestinian leader insisted that a move against Hamas and other organisations would provoke a civil war. He will not do so while the ceasefire continues.

He argues it would be consolidated if Israel withdraws troops, extends work permits, releases prisoners and eases travel restrictions. He made much of the long fence/wall being built by the Israelis, mostly in Palestinian territory and called for it to be stopped. Mr Bush appeared to support him; but he did not convince Ariel Sharon about it this week.

The fence is to continue and Sharon said Israel will make no more of the concessions called for unless there is "a complete cessation of terrorism, incitement and violence".

On the face of it, this nullifies the halting progress made in recent weeks to get negotiations going again. Doubts arise once more as to whether Mr Bush is willing to sustain pressure on Israel into an election year, having so far surprised sceptics by the extent of his engagement.

The roadmap's ambiguity about whether the Israeli occupation or Palestinian resistance is at the root of the problem exposes its weakness as a basis for negotiations and gives Mr Sharon a continuing excuse not to take action which could move them forward.

Despite its international support, many doubt that it properly addresses the asymmetry of power underlying the occupation, including the patchwork quilt of Israeli strategic settlements which would split up a new state.

An Israeli poll of settlers in the West Bank and Gaza also reveals a surprising willingness to compromise in search of a settlement. Fifty seven per cent of them are prepared to accept compensation and move back to Israel, 22 per cent would accept relocation and only 9 per cent would prefer to stay where they are under Palestinian rule.

These findings bear out the common Israeli assumption that most settlers are driven by commercial not ideological motives.

Housing is cheaper in the occupied territories and compensation would fund resettlement, as it did in the Sinai and Yamit in 1981-2 under a previous strong Likud leader, Menachem Begin. Sharon is potentially in a good position to deliver such a package on a larger scale. European and US governments would be called on to fund compensation for Palestinian refugees and Israeli settlers.

A joint Palestinian-Israeli poll in April shows 55 per cent of Palestinians and 61 per cent of Israelis support the roadmap. 65 per cent of Palestinians and 77 per cent of Israelis support reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis after a peace agreement is reached and a Palestinian state is established and recognised by Israel - bearing out Margouti's instinct.