Pursuit of power should lure DUP into doing a deal

The DUP meets today for its annual conference in Belfast in ebullient form after electoral success, writes Gerry Moriarty

The DUP meets today for its annual conference in Belfast in ebullient form after electoral success, writes Gerry Moriarty

At the last DUP annual conference I did an interview with Ian Paisley that attempted to stray off the well-trodden path and focus more on the man, his religion and his philosophy than his politics.

Love him or loathe his likes will never be seen again was the theme of the piece, I suppose.

I met a non-journalist friend shortly afterwards who lived in Belfast through all of the troubles, and had read the article.

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"You know, I can enjoy all the Doc's bluster and wit and theatrics," he said. And then he paused, shook his head, and added, "But I can never forgive him". A lot of people think like that.

My friend is absolutely convinced in his heart, head and soul that it was the intransigence and demagoguery of Dr Paisley in the 1960s and early 1970s, when there were unionists around who wanted to deal with nationalists, that destroyed the chance for peace and opened the door for the IRA, UVF, UDA, spooks, agents, and all the other forces, official and unofficial, to wreak horror and havoc.

Hard to persuade this man of the notion of New DUP, even if Dr Paisley now cordially chats with the Taoiseach and parleys with Brian Cowen without insulting him.

Of course, given half a chance Dr Paisley would probably once again publicly denounce the Pope as the Antichrist, judging by how his son Ian was this week in the Belfast News Letter denouncing Archbishop Seán Brady as a "terrorist sympathiser" and accusing him of uttering a "bellyful of bigotry".

Some of that stuff will never cease. It is in the Paisley and DUP genes.

But times are changing. The DUP meets today for its annual conference in Belfast in ebullient form, buoyed and bolstered by the fact that it is now the dominant force in unionism, but conscious that P. O'Neill is barring it from the reins of power that it desperately wants to grasp.

If Sinn Féin and the DUP ever do business Paisley's party will have the First Minister position, Peter Robinson in league - can you imagine it - with Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness.

In addition it will have four ministries under current arrangements, while the Ulster Unionists, Sinn Féin and the SDLP will only have two each. Wall to wall DUP at Stormont.

This causes some fearful folk to ask will all Northern Ireland schools be abandoning the theory of evolution for the fundamentalist certainty of creationism?

Will the swings in the parks be padlocked again on Sundays? Will all major GAA games be played on Saturdays rather than the Sabbath?

The answer to these questions is "No", "No", and "No".

The fundamentalist anti-Catholics in the DUP haven't gone away, you know, but times have truly changed.

The DUP pragmatists have the upper hand. The likes of strategist supreme Peter Robinson, Nigel Dodds, Jeffrey Donaldson and Gregory Campbell - who also come from born-again church backgrounds - know what will work, and what won't work. In any case the cross-community consensus fundamentals of the Belfast Agreement protects against one form of religion or politics imposing on another.

Moreover, the influx of so many former Ulster Unionists into the DUP has served to soften the hardline edge of the party, without basic principles being sacrificed, further assisting the concept of New DUP.

There are two schools of thought on the prospects of a deal. One is that it will never happen because the IRA will never deliver and the DUP will never work with Sinn Féin. The other is that a deal can be done but whether before or after next year's expected Westminster election is difficult to call.

The timing of a deal may be down to the self-interest of the DUP and Sinn Féin who may prefer to wait until after the British general election when, they hope, they have respectively routed the UUP and the SDLP.

Yet, a deal is possible but it's far from certain because figuring out the IRA is like understanding the Sphinx. A deal was on last spring and autumn but, to quote a DUP stalwart, "republicans bowled short". They may do so again, they may not. Only Gerry and Martin and a few others really know. What is certain is that fudges won't work this time.

What also seems certain is that the DUP would share power with Sinn Féin if the IRA retired itself. Why?

Because DUP politicians, like no other politicians, love and crave power. If they didn't the Belfast agreement would be pushing up daisies by now.

When the SDLP and Sinn Féin shared power with the DUP in nationalist controlled councils in the 1980s and 1990s the Rev Ian Paisley gave the nod for his councillors to do business with the enemy, but with the greatest of bad grace just to show there was no good feeling.

When the first Northern Executive was formed, Peter Robinson and Nigel Dodds in an equally curmudgeonly manner took up their ministerial positions, arguing in Jesuitical fashion that they weren't really engaged in the same enterprise as Sinn Féin, whom time out of number they pledged to smash.

Such was the cohesion and strength of the DUP in the Assembly and such was the disunity and weakness of David Trimble's UUP that Dr Paisley with two words could have brought the whole shaky edifice crashing down.

Had the DUP leader issued the order to his MLAs to "walk out" of the Assembly then it seems inconceivable that the Assembly and Executive could have survived.

Unionists, already losing faith with the great power-sharing project, could hardly have tolerated Trimble remaining in an Assembly where the majority were nationalists.

He didn't walk away until Trimble did. Why? Simple: power.

So if the IRA is truly up for going out of business then sometime in the next 18 months may be the time to do it.

If Dr Paisley strikes a deal his followers almost certainly will hold their noses and stomach it. Best deal when he's on this earth - not that he is in any rush to stride off it.

My friend may not be able to forgive Dr Paisley but the fact remains that the DUP of 2004 is not the DUP of 1974 when the DUP leader in the company of loyalist paramilitaries was helping collapse Sunningdale.

Even the Doctor knows that if devolution ever returns unionists, nationalists and republicans will be running Northern Ireland.