ON SUNDAY the Russian people will participate in the "democratic" coronation of a new president, Dmitry Medvedev, to succeed Vladimir Putin. Voters in this republic of 140 million, a major nuclear power with the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves, will transfer power for only the second time since the demise of the Soviet Union by formally ratifying Mr Putin's anointed choice after a distinctly one-sided election campaign.
Mr Medvedev hardly deigned to campaign, pleading pressure of work, and his opponents found it barely possible to do so. Despite spurning TV debates and questioning, according to Transparency International, Mr Medvedev has had more national media coverage than his three rivals combined. Civic organisations and international observers, not least the Council of Europe, also complain of widespread local pressure on voters in their places of work from supporters of Mr Putin.
Largely unknown, Mr Medvedev, the 42-year-old first deputy prime minister and chairman of Gazprom, Russia's gas monopoly, has never held elected office before and remains an enigma. He is likely to get over 70 per cent of the vote on the back of the genuine popularity of Mr Putin - eight straight years of economic growth does wonders for a politician - and will appoint the latter as prime minister. But will Mr Medvedev, known mainly as a cautious and diligent administrator, be able to forge a new path independent of his autocratic sponsor? Mr Putin, reputed to have accumulated a $40 billion fortune while in office, is widely expected to remain the power behind the throne.
Mr Medvedev portrays himself as a reformer, a liberal who wants to cut taxes and reduce bureaucracy. In Gazprom he effected a major reform of a largely tainted senior management. A lawyer by training, he has also spoken in recent weeks of the importance of the rule of law. "Russia is a country of legal nihilism. No European country can boast such a universal disregard for the rule of law," he argued, insisting that "one of the key elements of our work in the next four years will be ensuring the independence of our legal system from the executive and legislative branches of power".
Fine words, and right on the nail. But they butter no parsnips. He has emerged very much from the Putin inner circle and mould as a compromise who can balance between hardline and reforming factions, and it is difficult to imagine him easily dispensing with the services of his prime minister as other presidents have done regularly in the past. And yet, Putin's own attitude to reform is far from clear, and Russia in the past has produced reformers like Khrushchev and Gorbachev who, of necessity in an autocratic society, emerged from the heart of the beast. Medvedev may yet surprise.
On the international stage, however, continuity will be the order of the day. Medvedev has castigated western countries for recognising Kosovo, and is directly associated with the heavy-handed Gazprom diplomacy in eastern Europe, all reflecting the aggressive even bullying assertion of Russian interests and standing that Putin has come to represent.