"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest." Winston Churchill's famous remark, expressed in an October 1939 radio broadcast, remains apposite.
Kremlinologists the world over were flummoxed by President Vladimir Putin's appointment of the nondescript, colourless, obedient but capable Viktor Zubkow as prime minister this week and now scramble to put it in context. The key is Mr Putin's determination to maintain political and personal continuity, with himself as the ultimate political arbiter, when his second presidential term expires next year. He has no intention of becoming a lame-duck president in the meantime.
Mr Putin's popularity and appeal to voters endure precisely because he is widely credited with restoring national pride by asserting national interests and restoring Russia's great power status in an uncaring world following its humiliating decline during the 1990s when the Soviet Union collapsed. But he has pledged adherence to the constitutional ban on more than two successive terms as president. The most intriguing speculation about this appointment is that it could allow him a third term after the next president in 2012 - or before that, if his successor resigns. Being mysterious about who he will endorse reinforces his hold on power. We have yet to learn how he might maintain power while relinquishing office; but that problem could be solved by ensuring a compliant successor.
Mr Zubkow would be ideally suited to that task. He is a longtime political associate and personal friend of Mr Putin, as a tax official when he was mayor of St Petersburg and from 2001 as the chief official in charge of combating money-laundering. Corruption has been one of the principal problems facing the post-Soviet regime, and Mr Zubkow can also be readily projected as the author of legal actions taken against the oligarchy of billionaires who enriched themselves in the 1990s and have since been disempowered to great popular acclaim. Mr Zubkow has age on his side if, having been a success as prime minister, he decides to pursue this ambition and manages to secure Mr Putin's support; he could not stand again as president because he would be over 70 in 2012.
All this is speculation. Mr Putin has probably not made up his mind on how to solve the riddle of leaving office while staying in power. He now has another option - of endorsing either of the two existing deputy prime ministers as a presidential candidate and allowing Mr Zubkow to remain as a watchdog prime minister to trim his sails.