Putin's power play

Fresh on the heels of Russia's parliamentary elections which gave an overwhelming victory to the United Russia party supported…

Fresh on the heels of Russia's parliamentary elections which gave an overwhelming victory to the United Russia party supported by President Vladimir Putin, there now comes welcome clarification of who will succeed him as president next year and how Mr Putin is likely to hold on to power when he leaves that office.

On Monday Mr Putin said his preferred candidate to succeed him is his long time ally Mr Dmitry Medvedev, who is 42 and currently a deputy prime minister and chairman of the state energy holding company Gazprom. Formerly an academic lawyer from St Petersburg, he has a reputation as a relatively pro-western liberal nationalist, in contrast to the more hawkish security bureaucrats with whom Mr Putin otherwise surrounds himself. This nomination was supported by the four parties in the Duma, making Mr Medvedev's election on March 2nd virtually a foregone conclusion.

Yesterday he said he would like to see Mr Putin as prime minister should he become president. This would ensure a smooth transition. The stronger constitutional role of the presidency would be balanced by Mr Putin's political dominance and legitimacy. That prospect is calculated to reassure Russians and the world of a continuity of policy and a balance of power between competing political, economic and security interests.

What is not yet clear is whether Mr Putin will accept the offer to be prime minister, and if he does whether that will be for a short period before withdrawing from political life or on a longer-term basis. Historically Russia has not taken kindly to "dual tsars", so such a formula could be a recipe for future instability. In that case if Mr Putin wants to remain in charge he will need either to resume the presidency or recast the constitutional relationship between the two offices.

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On the basis of what we have seen so far such clarifications are likely to emerge in a gradual and timely way. That is intended to ensure that the political realities constructed by Mr Putin since 2000 remain in place. Russia's power and pride have been rebuilt after the humiliating decade when its finances collapsed and its world role was dramatically reduced. Mr Medvedev has little experience of foreign policy, but he insisted yesterday that Russia deserves and expects international respect. His firm management of Gazprom and its fundamental basis in booming oil and gas prices gives him a strong platform for an economic policy open to the world yet protective of Russian interests. He wants to tackle growing social inequalities with these new surpluses.