It will come as a surprise to few that the Irish public has not been sold on the US case to invade Iraq. The Irish Times/MRBI poll, published in this newspaper today, reveals the remarkable depth of that suspicion .
Moreover, while 68 per cent of respondents made clear they want Ireland to oppose unilateral US military action against Iraq, some 59 per cent would want Ireland to oppose, and vote against in the Security Council, any UN approval of action if Iraq defies inspectors again. Clearly the public accepts that such action would have a degree more legitimacy if authorised by the UN. But not enough.
The depth of anxiety indicated in the poll suggests a concern not just with the quantity or quality of evidence being levelled against Saddam Hussein, but a more profound concern with the whole approach being manifested by the US.
The UN has been asked to accept not only that Saddam has defied it, and that it must reassert its authority, but to take on board a new US worldview which says that classical diplomacy and deterrence no longer work. There is a new game in town and President Bush is writing the rules.
For many Irish people their great concern is that the UN, in which they continue to invest so many hopes as a vehicle to manage global collective security, is in danger of being turned into little more than a vehicle for legitimising the military adventures of the US.
Closer to home, the poll's results will put a sharp focus on some real challenges facing the Government. At home, it will be anxious not to be seen by voters as a poodle of the US, and in New York, it will want to reassure allies, including the US, that Ireland is a worthy Security Council member and a friend. Irish diplomats will have to engage in some very fancy footwork. In the end, however, unless Saddam rolls over and complies with UN inspections, it is likely they will face the question on which the public has pronounced so clearly in today's opinion poll.
Nor will simply voting at the UN against military action get Ireland's politicians off the hook domestically.The poll begged another important question. In the event of the UN, with or without Irish support, endorsing military action against Iraq, what should this State do to fulfill its Charter obligation to assist such an operation?
A member of the Security Council until December, entrusted by members, albeit temporarily, with being custodian of the organisation's credibility and effectiveness, has a particular political responsibility not to pick and choose, a la carte, which resolutions it happens to want to comply with. That's the difficult price of no longer just being a hurler on the ditch of world politics.
And a responsibility of which we should not hesitate to remind our allies in the US.