Inside Politics:The mood among TDs as they dispersed for the Easter Dáil recess on Thursday was one of barely controlled hysteria. The long wait for the election has stretched their nerves close to breaking point and at this stage most of them just want to get it over with. By contrast the Taoiseach is totally preoccupied with picking the moment of maximum political advantage, although his options are narrowing by the day.
Ahern's ardfheis speech two weeks ago was a sign that he is every bit as prone to panic as the most nervous of his TDs. That panic appeared to have abated by last Wednesday when the historic handshake with Ian Paisley at Farmleigh put the seal on all the hard work and commitment he has given to his Northern policy over the past decade.
The political impact of the Paisley meeting on the eve of the election should be a positive for Ahern. While the majority of voters will make up their minds on issues of more direct concern, like the state of public services or who they believe is best equipped to handle the economy, the success of the Taoiseach's Northern policy will, at the very least, reassure Fianna Fáil supporters and restore their confidence after a bad couple of weeks.
The breakthrough on the North may well be to Sinn Féin's advantage. The intense focus on the establishment of the power-sharing executive on May 8th will come at an ideal time for the party, which had been treading water in the Republic for the past two years, when it was out of the limelight. A number of Fianna Fáil seats are vulnerable to threat by Sinn Féin and it would be a bitter irony if Ahern's dogged determination to get the North sorted out before the election actually cost his party power.
Fine Gael and Labour are also in the hunt to take Fianna Fáil seats and both parties feel they have been given a shot in the arm by Mr Ahern's decision to throw prudence to the winds and make all those promises at his ardfheis. Opposition strategists are convinced that he was responding to private opinion poll research, which showed the Fianna Fáil share of the vote continuing to slide. Another theory is that he came under pressure from nervous backbenchers, who pleaded for a grand stroke to tee up the election campaign.
One way or another the tactic backfired and the speech was widely portrayed in the media as a negative rather than a positive. To cap it all Enda Kenny had a successful Fine Gael ardfheis last weekend, delivering a carefully constructed address that was widely acclaimed as visionary and prudent. Kenny has done wonders by restoring the shattered Fine Gael of 2002 into a party capable of challenging for power. Until last weekend, though, he had failed to convince a substantial portion of the electorate that he was a serious candidate for the office of Taoiseach.
Whether his speech has helped him get over that hurdle only time will tell, but he certainly convinced his own party supporters he has what it takes. The task facing him now is to match Ahern on the campaign trail over the next two months and convince the non-Fianna Fáil half of the electorate that he is a leader of real substance.
The anecdotal evidence from TDs of all parties is that the Fianna Fáil vote is under pressure. What is not clear is where the disaffected vote will go on election day. The Greens are certainly picking up some of it and a portion of it is also going to Sinn Féin. The task facing the alternative government of Fine Gael and Labour is to harness enough discontented voters to put themselves in genuine contention for office.
The danger for the alternative Government is that the field could be so broken up that Fianna Fáil would still come back to office in a hung Dáil. There is also the possibility that the voters might recoil from potential political chaos by swinging back to Fianna Fáil during the campaign. To avoid that outcome and convert anti-Government feeling into support for itself, the Fine Gael-Labour alternative has to convince the public it has a real chance of winning. That is why so much will depend on Kenny's performance during the campaign.
When it comes to electioneering on the stump, Kenny should come into his own. He is the first Fine Gael leader in a long time, if not the first ever, who gives the impression that he genuinely enjoys thrusting his way into crowds to shake hands, slap backs and talk to the voters. In the past two elections Bertie Ahern had a clear advantage when it came to the televised images of the leader on the campaign trail. This time around that may not be the case.
Fianna Fáil strategists believe that their man will still have an advantage when it comes to the television debates. The Taoiseach's record, his mastery of economic detail and the fact that he is still liked by the clear majority of voters are all formidable weapons in the struggle. Kenny's big challenge is to convince voters that he is equally capable of dealing with the range of issues facing the country.
Paradoxically, the Taoiseach's achievement in bringing his Northern policy to its logical conclusion may actually take some of the pressure off his opponent. If the North is no longer an issue, then the focus will be on the economy and the state of the public services. Kenny will want to focus on the state of public services and Ahern on the need for continuity to protect prosperity. Which of those issues the voters regard as most important will determine the outcome.