Opinion:A SENIOR Irish Government official bumped into Henry Kissinger at the Republican convention in Minneapolis in early September. Kissinger, former secretary of state in the Nixon administration and now a key member of America's foreign policy intelligentsia, came straight to the point.
"What are you doing about Europe?" he asked as he shook his head - a clear reference to the failure of the Lisbon Treaty vote earlier in the year.
Kissinger's comments encapsulate the uneasiness in influential circles in America about the Irish No vote on Lisbon.
There is little doubt that in business and political circles the notion of a second refusal to pass Lisbon could carry significant consequences.
Donald Keough, former president of Coca Cola which recently expanded in Ireland, makes clear that another No vote could damage Ireland with potential investors. "It sets up an unhealthy situation for Irish-based American companies to be operating its European operations from a place that has made clear its ambivalence to the European Union," he said. "American firms want certainty," he stressed, "to be secure that the operating conditions will not change after they relocate." He said there is little doubt that there could be consequences to a No vote again for investment.
"Everyone is chasing that investment dollar nowadays, especially in a recession. Another Ireland No vote would raise questions again about the country's commitment to Europe. That could have negative consequences."
While Americans do not focus on European issues much, there is little question that the Irish No vote on Lisbon caught the attention of key figures in the American political and business establishment.
The consensus among such leaders now is that Ireland will find itself in a very difficult place with another No vote.
"At a very basic level it generates confusion," said a senior Irish official. He pointed out that because of common bonds of heritage and language that Ireland is looked on as a safe haven for American companies accessing the EU market.
Indeed, the appointment of former taoiseach John Bruton as EU ambassador in Washington was a clear signal that the EU too believes that the special relationship between Ireland and the US can help smooth over EU/US difficulties. Now that reputation is on the line, especially if the second treaty vote fails. "The greater the confusion, the more others can exploit it, the more uncertain the potential investor becomes," said one official.
There is no doubt that other countries seeking investment are exploiting that confusion.
Several American companies have allegedly been told by IDA competitors that Ireland is no longer fully part of the EU, that the economy is collapsing and that its future role in Europe is uncertain at the very least.
"Often times it's very close as to who wins out on an investment deal. We can only suspect what is being said behind closed doors by our competitors about Ireland's role in Europe," said one official.
Another Irish refusal would certainly upset the chattering classes. EU expansion and bringing in marginal states such as Turkey, and possibly Bosnia, is seen as a vital part of a more stable world order. President George Bush has recently spoken out on the need for Turkey to get access to the EU.
The Turkish situation is on American minds as its form of a more secular Islam is seen as a vital buffer against more radical states in the region. Having it as a part of the EU would be a very positive move.
Ireland's No vote, however, has been seen as a blow to that ambition. Writing from Turkey, the New York Times columnist Roger Cohen was scathing in his criticism of the Irish move back in June.
"I can't think of a country that's benefited from European Union membership more than Ireland," he wrote, "Yet here we have the Irish in a fit of Euro-bashing pique worthy of the worst of little Englandism rejecting the renegotiated Lisbon Treaty.
"What the Irish did was unconscionable," he wrote, "EU history is full of acts of ingenuity that have kept the Euro bicycle from toppling, the months ahead should be used to find one to deal with the ungrateful Irish."
Cohen stated that after the Irish vote "the Turks could hardly be blamed for turning away from the EU. I suspect other nations would do the same because it would be clear that the idea of a political Europe is dead, replaced by the narrow insularity the Irish just demonstrated."
Those were strong words and many Irish Americans took exception to the headline of the piece entitled "The Muck of the Irish". But Cohen was obviously expressing a very real sentiment in influential American circles.
Another No vote could conceivably have major consequences for Ireland just as the economic recession bites. No doubt the IDA and Enterprise Ireland, as well as politicians everywhere, will be holding their breath until the result of the second Lisbon ballot.
Niall O'Dowd is founder of the Irish Voice newspaper of New York