Meeting the Kyoto Protocol target will be a tall order, writes Frank McDonald, Environment Editor
Last November in Nairobi, Minister for the Environment Dick Roche trumpeted Ireland as an example to the world in dealing with climate change. What we had managed to do, he said, was to "decouple" rising greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth, despite the our economy's "phenomenal" success.
Between 1990 and 2004, the Minister noted, "our emissions grew by 23 per cent but our economy grew by almost 150 per cent".
What he didn't tell the UN climate change conference was that emissions from Ireland's transport sector also rose by 150 per cent in the same period, fuelled by the economic boom.
And now we have the real figures. As reported by The Irish Timeslast week, the latest survey by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), published today, shows a surge of 1.9 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions to nearly 70 million tonnes in 2005 - the largest annual increase since 2001.
This brings the level of Ireland's emissions to more than 25 per cent above their 1990 levels - nearly double the target figure we are required to meet as our contribution to the European Union's commitment under the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change to cut its overall emissions by 8 per cent.
It can be seen clearly now that the reductions in emissions recorded in 2002-2004 were merely temporary dips in a rising curve, brought about almost accidentally by the closure of the IFI fertiliser plants in Arklow and Cork, the Irish Steel plant in Cork Harbour and older peat-fired generating stations.
What the EPA figures also show is that Ireland's per capita emissions of 11 tonnes per annum are now among the highest in the world, exceeded only by the US and Luxembourg.
That's a measure of our voracious consumption of imported fossil fuels, aggravated by methane emissions from agriculture.
It is deeply ironic that the latest figures are being released on the second anniversary of Kyoto's entry into force internationally. The protocol, first adopted in 1997, covers the period 2008-2012, which means that it starts "kicking in" on January 1st next - less than 11 months from now.
Mr Roche has continually maintained that Ireland "will meet its Kyoto Protocol target" of capping the rise in emissions at 13 per cent above their 1990 levels by 2012. Clearly, given the timetable, this will be a tall order - mainly because the Government has been so slow in addressing the issue.
Although its National Climate Change Strategy was published in 2000, few of the concrete measures it proposed have actually been adopted. Even tweaking Vehicle Registration Tax (VRT) to reflect carbon dioxide emissions has been deferred until next January, at the earliest - a full eight years later.
And the VRT reform now being envisaged is likely to be a hybrid, based on engine size as well as CO2 emissions.
Normally, those planning to buy a new car wait until the new year to make their purchase. But this time, there will probably be a surge in the sales of SUVs and other large cars in December.
The Government shied away from introducing a carbon tax - one of the concrete measures envisaged by its own climate change strategy - and also dithered for years over introducing higher energy efficiency standards for new homes, with the result that more than 200,000 were built to the old standards.
Although Minister for Finance Brian Cowen said in his last Budget speech that Ireland would meet its Kyoto commitment "primarily" by taking domestic measures - as the protocol always envisaged - he went on to announce an allocation of €270 million for the purchase of carbon credits overseas.
This stratagem of buying our way out of the problem was immediately "greenwashed" by Dick Roche as being "very much in line with the recent Stern report, which emphasised the importance of creating a global carbon market". In fact, Sir Nicholas Stern stressed the importance of taking domestic action.
Mr Roche always looks on the bright side, of course.
The document he published recently, entitled Ireland's Progress towards Environmental Sustainability, is suffused with smugness and complacency, highlighting environmental achievements while drawing a discreet veil over failures such as urban sprawl.
The danger inherent in greenwashing of this kind is that those who purvey it might actually believe the rosy picture it represents, and will be less inclined to advocate the type of tough policy changes needed to steer Ireland on a more environmentally sustainable course and meet our international obligations.
And if we think it will be difficult to achieve the minimal target accepted by the Government for the first Kyoto commitment period, imagine how much more onerous it's going to be after 2012, when much deeper cuts in emissions will be required if the world is to have any chance of tackling climate change.
Buying carbon credits is akin to "borrowing on the never never"; it simply puts off the day when the real bill must be paid. And the only way to deal with the "unequivocal" reality of global warming - as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change put it - is to wean ourselves off fossil fuels.
That is not going to be easy for Ireland, given our staggeringly high level of car dependency and alarmingly exposed reliance on imported oil, gas and coal. But with cuts in emissions of up to 30 per cent likely to be needed after 2012, the Government's shilly-shallying will only make the longer-term task more difficult.
Last June, Mr Roche issued a consultation paper that was supposedly going to lead to a prompt review of the National Climate Change Strategy. This is not now expected to be finalised until April and, with a general election expected in May, it may even be put on the back-burner for political reasons.
What new thinking will the review contain? Probably not much is the answer. How could it be otherwise when the Taoiseach himself remains an agnostic on the issue of climate change? He still believes that the environment is merely a division of the economy whereas, in fact, it's the other way around.