Immigration reform will be a key issue when the Taoiseach visits the US next week, writes Mark Brennock
Bertie Ahern will spend close to four hours in the company of George Bush during three separate encounters next week. The annual level of engagement around St Patrick's Day between the Taoiseach and the US president remains a symbol of the remarkable access the Government of this small State, relatively inconsequential in global political terms, has to the global superpower.
Mr Ahern will update the US president on Northern Ireland, Mr Bush will update the Taoiseach on his thinking on Iraq and the "war on terror". The two men will discuss peacekeeping requirements in Darfur, Congo and elsewhere. Dermot Ahern's recent call for the closure of the Guantanamo Bay detention centre - echoing the view throughout the EU as well as that of UN secretary general Kofi Annan - is also likely to feature.
But the hot political issue this year is the US determination to clamp down on illegal immigrants - of which there are an estimated 11 million. Up to 50,000 of these are Irish, and new US legislation, driven largely by post-9/11 security concerns, is driving many of these to the margins of US society.
The Irish-born population in the United States is visibly shrinking as the new rules bite. It is now impossible for illegal immigrants to obtain driving licences or travel out of the country and return without having their illegal status uncovered, resulting in deportation. Employers must now use a federal database to ensure all employees are legal.
Genuine social security numbers are needed to get a job or open a bank account. Those with none, or false ones, are slowly being edged out of normal social participation. Some have already come home, and more - who had initially hoped to live and raise their families in the US - are considering it.
The families of these Irish in America have made their distress known to Irish politicians, and the Taoiseach and Minister for Foreign Affairs have raised the issue with US leaders on several occasions. The Taoiseach will raise the matter directly with President Bush when they meet at the White House next Thursday.
The issue goes well beyond the individual human stories about the difficulties caused by the new cold climate for relatively recent migrants.
The ties between Ireland and the United States resulting from centuries of migration to the United States - and more recently back home again - have helped define Ireland politically. The number and depth of these transatlantic ties are what allowed Mary Harney to claim in one of the keynote speeches of her time in Government that "spiritually we are probably a lot closer to Boston than Berlin".
Her remarks were primarily intended to praise the US liberal economic model as opposed to the more statist and regulated European one. However, they also identified the effect the tradition of transatlantic migration has had on the population. For while the British/US transatlantic relationship emerged from the shared interests of two international players, the deep Irish/US relationship originated in relationships between people rather than between political elites.
Those now campaigning to give a break to illegal Irish in the US warn that this migration-based relationship may itself be under threat due to the new laws. More than 2,000 Irish illegals attended a rally in Washington DC on Wednesday organised by the Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform (ILIR) to press their case.
The Los Angeles Times this week quoted US census figures showing the Irish-born population in the United States has fallen from 251,000 in 1970 to 169,827 in 1990. It fell particularly sharply between 2003 and 2004, from 148,416 to 127,682.
The paper reported convincing anecdotal evidence that Irish communities are dwindling in size, Irish shops are losing business, Irish community newspapers are losing advertising and the numbers of GAA teams in traditional Irish neighbourhoods are falling. The new tough US regime, coupled with the attractions of job-rich Ireland, is shrinking the Irish community.
Niall O'Dowd, the founder and chairman of ILIR, wrote in this newspaper recently: "If a deal is not reached the footprint of the Irish in America will be elided in a very significant way. Within a generation, the ties between Ireland and Irish America will begin to fray as the direct links between both countries begin to fade." This comes less than a decade after this extraordinary people-based relationship reached its highest point due to the combination of the emerging peace process in Northern Ireland, a sophisticated Irish lobbying operation launched from here and from within the Irish/American community, and a deeply engaged president Bill Clinton. Ithe mid-1990s the entire peace process moved to Washington for a couple of days each year to be bathed in the aura of president Clinton and US goodwill. The East Room of the White House was thrown open to the Irish.
Political leaders and business and cultural figures from across the community in the North were joined by the successful and politically connected members and descendants of the Irish diaspora.
President Clinton addressed them and moved among them, validating the integrity of the old quarrel while urging compromise and fresh thinking. Politicians of different outlooks sang, danced and told stories and Clinton stayed until very late. The guns had only been silent(ish) for a short period.
It was one of the great wonders to behold in the politics of this island in recent times. The "feel-good" effect on the population of this island, North and South, was profound. In practical terms, stories emerged of the likes of Martin McGuinness and Billy Hutchinson sitting in the Irish Ambassador's garden in Washington as dawn broke, having the longest and deepest conversations they had ever had, after almost three decades of violence and bitterness.
There was great value in those early years in the White House allowing itself to be used to create a mood in Ireland. The issues are clearer and sharper now: no longer are Northern politicians simply doing a lap of honour in Washington. Last year the political leaders were not invited to the White House at all, as the US administration showed its frustration with the lack of progress.
The gesture was primarily aimed at Sinn Féin. The White House wants Sinn Féin to sign up for policing and the DUP for power sharing. When Mr Ahern meets Mr Bush on Thursday he will update him on the continuing failure to restore the power-sharing executive. No new major initiative is sought or expected from the White House at this stage.
Claims that US aircraft used in the "rendition" process - the transportation of secretly detained prisoners - are passing through Shannon continue to be raised in Ireland. The Government continues to accept the diplomatic assurances repeated by Condoleezza Rice late last year that Shannon is not being used as a stopover for this purpose. This issue is not expected to feature in next week's discussions.
Immigration is the key issue on which the Government hopes to influence both the White House and members of Congress the Taoiseach will meet during his trip. The Kennedy/McCain Bill on the subject is seen as most advantageous for the Irish in America. Now it is accepted that whatever emerges will be a compromise between this and various more hostile proposals.
Government sources say they are not concerned about the precise mechanics of whatever new system emerges, so long as it allows the Irish in America to relax and attempt to build their lives there. Negotiations in Congress over the next month are expected to be crucial, but there is no guarantee that a new immigration regime will be in place in advance of next November's mid-term Congressional elections.