The Nice Treaty is looming as a major issue once the new Government is installed and faces into the autumn political season. Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats have agreed to make its ratification a priority if they form another coalition.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has spoken strongly about the need to keep Ireland at the heart of Europe integration by ratifying the treaty if national progress and prosperity are to be preserved. He will seek a declaration on Ireland's military neutrality from his EU partners at the European Council in Seville later this month. The latest report from the chairman of the National Forum on Europe identifies this as a key question preoccupying voters.
It is just as well the incoming Government is preparing to take this vital issue so seriously, since it was virtually ignored as a matter of debate between the political parties during the general election campaign - despite their manifesto positions. This was a missed opportunity to raise public awareness. The consequent drift in public opinion was clearly revealed in the recent Irish Times/MRBI poll showing an even division between Yes, No and Don't Know voters. Many voters remain confused about the treaty's contents, concerned about the direction taken by European integration, dissatisfied about the decision-making procedures involved and resentful about being asked to revisit an issue on which they have already expressed their opinion.
It will take a major mobilisation of interest groups and effective political leadership to convince a confused electorate that the Nice Treaty should be revisited and approved. Effectively it was decided last year by those who abstained, because a much higher proportion of past Yes voters than No ones stayed at home. This was partly the result of a dismally ineffective campaign by the main political parties in favour, compared to which those opposed were far more successful in mobilising support. Assuming the second referendum is held in October or November, negotiations on EU enlargement will have nearly concluded and all concerned will await Ireland's decision. The Yes campaign will have to clarify why the treaty is necessary to allow enlargement proceed. It will also face the task of situating that argument in the wider one about the future of Europe under way in Brussels.
The chairman's report from the National Forum on Europe makes a valuable contribution to this debate. Drawing on a consensus among the parties and groups involved, it says no one opposes EU enlargement in principle; rather is the argument about whether the treaty is needed to achieve it. The report identifies military neutrality and quite inadequate Oireachtas supervision of EU business as major concerns. Argument will now be pitched at how best to address them - whether, for example, by a political declaration or a legal protocol on neutrality. Over-riding these will be the argument put forcibly by the Taoiseach this week: that Ireland's future political and economic well-being depend crucially on remaining at the centre of EU decision-making about jobs, tax, exports, competition and agriculture. Those opposed to the treaty have an uphill task to convince voters this would not be lost by another No vote.