On the realistic assumption that the Nice Treaty will be put to another referendum by the end of the year the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll shows that it could be a very close contest indeed.
The findings will give heart to those who support the treaty and closer European integration, insofar as they register a swing back in favour of both after the June vote against the treaty. But there is still a large group opposing it and a similar number who don't know how they would vote or don't intend to. Whatever Government is formed after the election will have its work cut out to mobilise a Yes vote and to raise awareness about the issues at stake. Indeed they are much too important to be left until then and should be dealt with forthrightly in the election campaign.
An important indicator of changing Irish attitudes to integration is contained in the responses to the question of whether people believe Ireland should unite fully with the EU or do all it can to protect its independence. Following a marked shift between such attitudes during the referendum campaign and research finding of very confused attitudes after it after it, the latest Irish Times/MRBI poll finds that 51 per cent support the integrationist option and 33 per cent the independence one. This probably represents a counter-swing in response to the Nice result and buoyant attitudes arising from the launch of the euro notes and coins. But there is little indication that people are basically better informed or more satisfied with how decisions on EU affairs are made here or in Brussels.
This is likely to remain the case until there is a more vigorous public debate on Ireland's changing position in the EU and how the future of Europe should be organised from Ireland's point of view. People engage with such issues when they see politicians and public figures they trust debating and disagreeing about them. There was a great lack of such engagement during the referendum campaign. Cogent questions raised by opponents of the treaty were left unanswered, as were many ill-informed criticisms.
That context has been changed by the shock effects of the result in Ireland and throughout the EU. It is now more clearly understood that a second No would have damaging consequences for Ireland's role in Europe. It would set back EU enlargement and could lead to an unprecedented isolation which would affect Ireland's economic prosperity. But there is precious little time to arrange clarifications or renegotiations of the treaty at domestic or EU levels, as Ireland's partners increasingly ask what will be done about it. The Government awaits a report from the National Forum on Europe on available options, but a consensus may be very difficult to achieve.
That means real political leadership is required to make decisions and lift the level of debate and awareness in advance of another referendum. The Convention on the Future of Europe provides a wider context for that debate within the EU; but unless it is matched by political courage and engagement at home this Irish Times/MRBI poll shows there is no certainty that another referendum would be carried. .