Reynolds's pre-emptive strike may have knocked Hume out

The guessing game over John Hume's presidential intentions has generated disquiet, uncertainty, aggravation, irritation and alarm…

The guessing game over John Hume's presidential intentions has generated disquiet, uncertainty, aggravation, irritation and alarm. There is a strong body of opinion in the Republic and among northern nationalists that it would be appropriate to honour the SDLP leader for his unremitting dedication to the cause of peace and reconciliation by making him the acknowledged leader of the Irish nation.

John Hume remains the most revered leader of constitutional nationalism since Daniel O'Connell. Most nationalists, and even some unionists, would see it as entirely logical and right that he should crown his achievements by taking up residence in the Park.

It is unfortunate, however, that the opportunity has arisen at a delicate time in the peace process. Ironically, Mr Hume's success as a peacemaker is making it difficult for him to advance his political career. If the Northern violence was continuing, it might be a lot easier politically for him to succeed Mrs Robinson.

But Mr Hume reached out a hand to the men and women of violence and drew them into the political process. Without his political and personal courage there would probably be no IRA or loyalist ceasefires today.

READ MORE

But the peace process is not secure. The downfall of Albert Reynolds is said to have been the beginning of the end for the first IRA ceasefire. Nationalist sources in the peace process say John Hume's departure for the Phoenix Park would have an equally devastating effect.

Sources close to republican thinking say the doves in the Sinn Fein leadership are "very, very worried" about Mr Hume's intentions. Privately they oppose the SDLP leader departing the Northern scene and Mr Hume is aware of their feelings.

It is understood that the second ceasefire was "sold" to the IRA leadership at least partly on the following basis: the replacement of John Bruton by Bertie Ahern meant that the nationalist consensus had been reconstructed. The departure of Hume would remove a leg from this tripod and give rise to alarming complications inside the republican movement.

There would also be a bitter contest in Derry for Hume's Westminster seat, at a time when Sinn Fein leaders believe that maximum nationalist unity is essential. Nor would the by-election for Hume's European seat be likely to enhance the environment for the Stormont talks.

A meeting of senior SDLP members was held in Belfast on Saturday night, where a possible Hume candidacy was discussed, among other issues, including tomorrow's resumption of the talks. SDLP sources said views were expressed for and against the candidacy but it was made clear to the leader that if the job was available to him he should go for it and the party would stand by him. SDLP activists emphatically reject any suggestion that they could not participate just as effectively in the talks without their current leader. "We're capable of looking after ourselves."

The decision remains with Mr Hume alone, in consultation with the Southern parties. Sources close to him said he was still undecided and would make his final choice with a "mental flip of the coin".

Although his decision was meant to be revealed today, the fact that the President, Mrs Robinson, is making a "farewell" visit to Northern Ireland is an inhibiting factor. The much-postponed announcement may not come until late tonight or tomorrow, or even later.

Some of those closest to Mr Hume think he should go for the job because of the huge toll the last 30 years have taken on him both emotionally and physically. The relative calm of the Presidency would be less taxing and he would still be able to "have an input" with regard to the North.

The impact of Mr Hume's departure on the peace process does not seem to have figured in the thinking of the major parties in the Dail. The main priority seems to be avoiding an expensive and inconvenient presidential election - what one Fianna Fail source described as "an expensive farce".

The "pre-emptive strike" by Albert Reynolds and his apparently relentless and stubborn determination to contest the nomination inside Fianna Fail may have wrecked the prospect of a Hume Presidency. "Hume could have killed off Reynolds a month ago if he had declared," a Fianna Fail source said wistfully.

Now the Derryman faces the prospect of overriding the ambitions of a former Taoiseach and president of Fianna Fail inside the ranks of the Soldiers of Destiny themselves. This would be a breach of the SDLP's tradition of seeking maximum cross-party support down South. Reynolds is the only constitutional nationalist politician whose achievements in the peace process bear any comparison with those of Hume himself and he has never been unduly modest about the fact.

Small wonder that a senior SDLP member described the Longford man as "the fly in the ointment".