Two nights into the United States-led military strikes against Afghanistan it is becoming clear how important it will be to hold the anti-terrorism coalition together if the military operation is prolonged. There was a strong statement of support for it from the European Union yesterday, but a decidedly muted response from most Arab and Muslim states, although Pakistan's leader remained supportive despite street anger. The United States told the United Nations Security Council it might have to target other organisations and states in pursuit of its right of self-defence. Such an escalation would easily threaten the fragile unity of this disparate coalition of governments and peoples.
A great deal depends on the military and political effectiveness of the operation against Afghanistan and the al-Qaeda organisation led by Osama bin Laden based there. If it is rapidly successful, resulting in his capture or death, and if the humanitarian relief programme is seen to be effective it will be much easier to justify to a sceptical Arab and Muslim world. That was the main thrust of the EU's statement on the crisis yesterday. It stressed the importance of humanitarian aid, the essential role of the United Nations and the desirability of replacing the Taliban regime by a more truly representative Afghan government.
Each of these objectives has been mentioned in statements by US leaders in the last two days. They are loosely within the terms of the UN Security Council resolutions and mandate - and the Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, said yesterday the military action is justified. The possibility of escalating the campaign militarily against other states was however mentioned - perhaps as a formal contingency - rather than an actual plan. This is a different issue and any escalation would require the production of hard evidence.
Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon have been canvassed by hardliners in President Bush's administration as potential targets because they harbour terrorist organisations. Given the sceptical or hostile reaction to the raids in most Arab and Muslim states yesterday that would be a foolhardy route indeed. It would play straight into bin Laden's hands, helping his organisation justify its claim that a clash of civilisations, pitting Islam against western infidels, is actually at stake.
In the longer term, political, diplomatic and intelligence methods will reap greater rewards against terrorism than military ones. It will be essential to tackle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict firmly and constructively and to relax the UN sanctions against Iraq if Arab states and peoples are to be convinced to support the anti-terrorism campaign. American - and western - world views will have to be reconsidered and redefined.
But all eyes are now on the more short term outcome of the military attacks on Afghanistan and the associated political and humanitarian objectives. On yesterday's evidence it is vital that they be concluded rapidly and successfully if the coalition is to hold together.