Iraq has been playing a canny game in recent months as it seeks to loosen up the sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council after the Gulf War. With the United States preoccupied by elections and many Middle Eastern states dissatisfied by its tilt towards Israel and more willing to develop relations with Baghdad, there has been ample opportunity for Iraq's leaders. Increasing oil prices have added to this leverage. This has bolstered non-governmental efforts to relieve the grave impact of sanctions on Iraq's civilian population by taking initiatives on humanitarian aid.
Yesterday the Jordanian prime minister began a visit to Baghdad, where he hopes to renegotiate a favourable oil deal. Syria is doing a pipeline deal with Iraq. Delegations from 45 countries and 1,554 companies are attending a trade fair in Baghdad. Russian, Chinese and French oil firms are keen to develop Iraq's vast oil reserves and there are reports that major Western oil companies are also anxious to become involved. A plane carrying medicines and food from Ireland landed in Baghdad yesterday, joining many others sent there with humanitarian aid designed to test the no-fly zones policed by US and British air force planes over Shi'ite enclaves in the south of Iraq and Kurdish ones in the north.
This buildup of contacts represents a major shift of attitudes and policy on the Iraq question - in the Middle East and the wider world. The sanctions imposed by the Security Council can only be undone by that body. They are intended to stay in place until Iraq destroys its weapons of mass destruction. There has been a complete impasse since Iraq expelled weapons inspectors two years ago and the US and Britain retaliated with cruise missile attacks. These two states have flatly refused to reconsider the sanctions.
But the sanctions have primarily affected Iraq's civilian population rather than the Saddam Hussein regime they were designed to penalise. There are horrifying estimates from the International Red Cross and other trustworthy organisations that infant mortality and unemployment have soared, as Iraq's social and physical infrastructures collapsed under the strain. Millions of people have suffered. It is high time the sanctions were thoroughly reviewed and renegotiated. The opportunity is there to do so after the US elections, although it will take some time for whoever wins to come to terms with this issue. Much will depend on how the Middle East crisis develops. The Iraqi government played another card last week when it announced it is to conduct its oil trade in euros not dollars. This is a substantial gesture to eurozone governments, where oil-based inflation has become a worrying trend. Presumably Iraq is fishing for diplomatic favours in return, since most EU states disagree with the US and British positions. This will be an interesting test of Ireland's resolve as it takes up its UN Security Council seat in the New Year.