FRANCE’S SOCIALIST Party has selected François Hollande as its candidate for the country’s presidential elections next April and May, to fight against president Nicolas Sarkozy and other candidates from the right and left. Mr Hollande, a genial 57-year-old party veteran from its centre left, with a political background in provincial France, had a decisive victory over Martine Aubry in last Sunday’s second primary vote. This new way of choosing a leader was an unqualified success, involving up to three million people who may now become active with the party, and giving it valuable media exposure.
Mr Hollande has an auspicious start for his campaign, with the latest polls showing he has a 62 to 38 per cent lead over Mr Sarkozy in a second round and a 35 to 25 per cent margin in a first one.
The president’s public support has been flagging for a long time now, as voters tire of his hyper-active approach which has failed to revive the domestic economy, however much they respect his more assured handling of the international financial crisis.
But that too threatens his position, as one credit agency talks of reducing France’s triple A rating because of its exposure to Greek, Italian and Spanish debt. He desperately needs to avoid that to retain political credibility, which holds up this week’s search for a grand bargain on the euro’s future.
Mr Hollande is determined to maintain his profile as a responsible supporter of fiscal consolidation, pledging to reduce the budget deficit to from 7 to 3 per cent by 2013 and to balance it by 2017. Despite this he secured support from the more left-wing Ms Aubry and the other candidates including his former wife Ségolène Royal.
The party wants to put its fractious past behind it in seeking to hold the office of president for only the second time since 1958. It is in good condition for the long campaign ahead, having captured control of the senate last month. Its leaders know Mr Sarkozy cannot be underestimated.
He says Mr Hollande lacks governing experience, is incapable of taking tough decisions and will have to court favour with the radical left in and out of his party to create a winning alliance. The election will play out against a turbulent European and international environment which will test both men’s responses.
Mr Sarkozy needs allies too and will continue to court the radical right. This promises to be a dramatic and fateful contest.