Adoption of Saudi-backed formula for unity government by Hamas and Fatah would be a major political victory for King Abdullah, writes Michael Jansen
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas warned yesterday that failure of Saudi-brokered reconciliation talks in Mecca between his Fatah movement and Hamas could lead to civil war in the occupied Palestinian territories.
And prime minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas vowed "every effort" would be made to establish a national unity government that would end inter-factional fighting that has plagued Gaza and the West Bank over the past few weeks.
Spokesmen for both sides have repeatedly stated that this is the Palestinians' last chance to end the strife and failure is not an option.
Officials from the two parties crossed from Gaza into Egypt and took separate flights to Jeddah, where they had separate meetings with Saudi King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan ahead of the open-ended summit at Mecca.
The involvement of the two most senior figures in the kingdom suggests the Saudis do not contemplate failure. To secure success, the Saudis have carefully prepared the ground for the meeting by holding discussions with Iran, which backs Hamas, and the US, which supports Fatah.
Riyadh clearly won the approval of both Tehran and Washington for this endeavour. Tehran does not want civil war in the Palestinian territories because of the risk that its ally, Hamas, could be crushed militarily or ousted from power.
Washington wants to see Fatah back in office, even as part of a unity government, and would like to see Sunni Arab Saudi Arabia emerge in a regional leadership role to counter Shia Persian Iran's growing influence.
Syria, which hosts Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mishaal (who is attending the summit), has also invested time and effort in a deal and can claim part of the credit.
As can Egypt and Qatar, which tried and failed to mediate an agree- ment since the idea of a unity government was accepted by both sides last summer.
Once the elements of an accord were in place, the Saudis invited the Palestinians to finalise the deal. The Saudis chose Mecca as the site of the summit because it houses the holiest mosque in the Islamic world where the faithful profess their belief in the brotherhood of all Muslims.
The summit will take place in a room at a guest palace overlooking the Kaaba, the symbol of unity to which all Muslims turn in prayer. The meeting is taking place during Muharram, a traditional month of truce for Arabs and Muslims.
Thus, the venue and timing make it more difficult for Fatah and Hamas to evade compromise on the key disputed issue, the political programme of the unity government. The sides disagree over how to define Hamas' attitude to past Palestinian peace process commitments. Fatah insists Hamas must formally agree to these commitments, while Hamas is prepared only to recognise they exist.
To get around this problem, Saudi Arabia is expected to press for adoption by the new government of its peace plan, presented to the March 2002 Arab Summit Conference. The plan promises "full normalisation" of Arab relations with Israel in exchange for "full withdrawal" from territories occupied by Israel in 1967 - the West Bank and Gaza, Syria's Golan and Lebanon's Shebaa Farms.
Hamas' acceptance of this formula would amount to de facto recognition of Israel's existence and acceptance of the "two-state solution" involving a Palestinian state coexisting side by side with Israel.
This could clear the way for the quartet of the US, EU, UN and Russia to end the political and financial boycott of the Palestinians imposed after Hamas formed a government last March.
The Saudis are in a good position to secure an agreement. Riyadh has financed Fatah since 1968 and continues to fund the Palestinian National Authority. Wealthy Saudis and Saudi charities have been major contributors to Hamas' welfare programmes, which have won the movement its popular following. Riyadh is likely to promise a lucrative aid package to ease Palestinian suffering.
An infusion of cash would benefit Fatah and Hamas, which have lost considerable support due to recent violent clashes. Once there is consensus on the programme, Mr Haniyeh will form a new cabinet.
Three key posts are go to independents: finance to Salam Fayad, who formerly held the post, foreign affairs to Ziad Abu Amr and interior to a candidate chosen by Hamas. There are to be nine Hamas ministers in addition to Mr Haniyeh, six Fatah ministers, and four ministers from smaller factions such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
Adoption of the Saudi peace formula would be a major political victory for the king, who personally put it forward and would put pressure on Israel, which rejected land for normalisation five years ago to negotiate with the Palestinians on this basis rather than on the defunct road map.
A Palestinian deal would also encourage the Saudis to persevere with their efforts to mediate a solution to the crisis between Lebanon's pro-Western government and the Hizbullah-led opposition.