This week the Arab League will hopefully try to organise peace talks in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, aimed at ending hostilities in Somalia which threaten to slide into a very complicated war.
Talks planned for last week had to be abandoned. Meanwhile, the African Union, which is aiming to keep the sides apart, has been unable to despatch troops into the country and 20,000 thousand refugees are pouring over the border into Kenyan camps which already are full. Another 30,000 are expected to cross over before the year is out.
The situation in Somalia is grave not just because the hostilities have brought great hardship to its people but because, like so many other struggles in Africa, the country is being turned into another power-play arena where others use it to fight a proxy war. Yesterday, there were further reports of Ethiopian troops pouring into the west of the country to prop up the government while Eriteria, which has a bitter border dispute with Ethiopia, is reported to be arming the government's opponents.
Somalia has had no effective government since the overthrow of the dictator Mohamed Siad Barre 15 years ago. The north of the country, the former British protectorate of Somaliland, is peaceful and has broken away. It is seeking international recognition but is not getting it. The rest of Somalia, over the 15 years, was divided up by warlords who suited themselves rather than the people and spent most of the time fighting each other.
The total anarchy in the country, which is predominantly Muslim, was such that Islamic forces found it easy to gain support and territory, culminating in the seizure in June of the capital, Mogadishu, while the feeble government cowered in Baidoa. The Islamic forces now style themselves under the title of the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts. Not surprisingly, the council imposes Sharia law in territory under its control, and its leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, likens Osama bin Laden to Nelson Mandela. The United States, is not amused and is likely to increase its financial aid to the warlords.
If Ethiopia and Eriteria are to fight each other on Somalian soil, with US money thrown in, it will simply mean that, by becoming more complicated, the fighting will be harder to resolve. Ethiopia, being largely Christian, is determined not to have a radical Islamic nation for a neighbour. The US is equally determined that Somalia will not play host to bin Laden types. All-out war in Somalia will draw in neighbouring countries and cripple the region. The Arab League must get peace talks started and the African Union must send in peacekeepers, no matter how difficult their task might seem.