The SDLP and the Ulster Unionists have not gone away, you know, writes Vincent Browne
They both fared creditably in the local government elections, thereby ensuring they will remain significant factors in Northern Ireland politics for a while yet.
At the time of writing yesterday afternoon, with 40 of the 582 local government seats yet to be filled, the DUP had 174, Sinn Féin 120, the Ulster Unionists 103 and the SDLP 92. Fifty-three seats had been taken by other parties, including Alliance and the Greens.
But the taking of 92 seats by the SDLP (up to that point), just 28 short of the Sinn Féin total at the same point, shows they will feature strongly in any new elections for the Northern Assembly.
So, too, will the Ulster Unionists, provided they decide quickly on a new leader and get someone likeable and electable. Sylvia Hermon would be that, but she has a major disability in terms of unionist politics - she is a woman.
In a way it is a pity the Ulster Unionists are still a factor. Had they been seen off the stage, the way would have been cleared for the DUP to make the necessary concessions with Sinn Féin to get the executive and other institutions of the Belfast Agreement back on track.
The fact that there remains competition on the unionist side makes that all the more difficult, for the DUP and Ulster Unionists will fight Assembly elections on the basis of which is the tougher party.
And in a way the Ulster Unionists deserved to be seen off the stage, and particularly David Trimble. He thoroughly cocked up the selling of the Belfast Agreement to the unionist community.
From the outset he was on the defensive about it instead of claiming, as he would have been entitled to, that the agreement represented a major triumph for unionism.
For the first time all of nationalist (and republican) Ireland accepted partition, and accepted that there could be no change in the constitutional status of Northern Ireland without the agreement of a majority of the people there.
This was, by far, the most significant element of the agreement, far more important than the release of prisoners, than the power-sharing executive and the all-Ireland institutions. Had Trimble et al sold the agreement on that basis, it could have copperfastened his position and that of his party as well as securing the agreement itself.
But instead he got caught on arguing about side issues, notably decommissioning.
Decommissioning never mattered. How could anybody, other than those in the IRA, know that the IRA had decommissioned all its weapons? How could anybody know that the IRA was not securing other weapons? Anyway, what does it matter in the context of agreement on policing?
Policing was another issue Trimble et al mishandled. Had they fastened on getting Sinn Féin tied into policing, right from the outset, that would have resolved everything else. No need then for formal decomm-
issioning.
Proof of Sinn Féin commit-
ment to policing would have been - and must still be - support for the surrender of all illegal weapons; and by illegal weapons I mean weapons not under the control of the Northern Ireland police, An Garda Síochána, the Irish Army and, for the time being, the British army.
That would have dealt with the issue of punishment beatings, too.
Trimble did not have the courage to go on these issues nor the debating skill to contrive that these remained at the centre of the political agenda, not irrelevancies. The UUP is as well off without him.
Competition on the unionist side is a complication; competition on the nationalist side is a must. This is because competition on the nationalist side will drive politics towards the centre.
Sinn Féin did well in these elections but not spectacularly so. It had wanted to wipe out the SDLP at its leadership level and at its grass roots. Neither has happened. The success of Mark Durkan in Foyle is hugely significant for it retains its leadership; the success of the party in the local elections retains its base.
There has been another success as well. The McCartney women have proved an important element. They have slowed the rise of Sinn Féin, especially with the Belfast middle class. They have given breathing room to the SDLP.
Someone said in Belfast recently that before the Northern Bank robbery and the Robert McCartney murder, Sinn Féin could not miss a shot, like Steve Davis in his prime. But like Steve Davis as he passed his prime, they started missing shots and, after a while, couldn't make a shot.
Anyway, it has thrown Sinn Féin off its stride and probably contributed to Gerry Adams making his hugely significant plea to the IRA to go away.
The significance of that intervention has been as badly misunderstood as the significance of the Belfast Agreement to unionists, but that's for another day.