INSIDE POLITICS:Martin must follow Kenny's example by rebuilding organisation and restoring party members' morale
MICHEÁL MARTIN and Fianna Fáil got a little bit of luck in the Seanad elections and while it does not compensate for the disastrous general election performance, it may be the first glimmer of hope that the party has a viable long-term future.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, according to the old Chinese proverb, and the outcome of the Seanad elections certainly represents a step in the right direction for Fianna Fáil. Martin took a risk by putting his leadership to the test with a list of 10 preferred candidates but he had no real choice if was serious about trying to build for the future. He almost got six of them over the line, but getting five was not bad in the circumstances.
The existence of the list caused a degree of tension and hurt within the party, but Martin had to do something to get as many potential winners of Dáil seats as possible into the Upper House. It was particularly important for the party to get some women elected to the Seanad, given the fact that the diminished parliamentary party was an entirely male preserve after the general election.
This was probably the last Seanad election in the history of the State, so it was vital for Fianna Fáil to use it to maximum advantage to build for the future. The setback suffered by the party in the local elections of 2009 and the thrashing it received in the general election meant that the party’s share of the Seanad electorate was more than halved since the last election in 2007.
In those circumstances, the advantage lay with the incumbent long-serving Senators who have a close relationship with the local councillors who make up the bulk of the electorate for the 43 seats on the five vocational panels. From the party’s point of view, the problem with most of these “professional Senators” is that they are not potential seat winners in the next general election.
Younger Seanad candidates running for the first time were going to be at a clear disadvantage and the only way Martin could influence the outcome was to try to convince his councillors to vote for them in the long-term interests of the party.
Enda Kenny did something similar after Fine Gael suffered a bad election defeat in 2002 and he laid the foundation for the party’s recovery by getting people like Brian Hayes, Joe McHugh and Frank Feighan into the Upper House. Some of the inclusions on Martin’s preferred list were inexplicable, as were some of the omissions, but the tactic was the only viable one available to him.
Getting five out of the 10 on the list elected was a bit disappointing for Martin, but the existence of the list added an extra layer of competition into the campaign that boosted the party’s overall performance. It encouraged the long-serving Senators to try to eke out every last vote from Independent councillors. They also made strenuous attempts to get preferences from the other parties as they knew a sizeable chunk of their own party’s vote was spoken for. The net result was that the party got considerably more votes and seats than its share of the electorate warranted. The fact that two Fianna Fáil Senators, Labhras Ó Murchú and Mark Daly, had private deals with Sinn Féin won the party two extra seats, but the important winners were people like Averil Power, Darragh O’Brien, Thomas Byrne and the other potential TDs. Mary Fitzpatrick’s narrow defeat yesterday was the big disappointment for Martin but she is still a potential Dáil seat winner in Dublin Central.
At the end of the count, Fianna Fáil had 14 Senators compared to 18 for Fine Gael, eight for Labour and three for Sinn Féin. In the Upper House, at least, Fianna Fáil is still the main Opposition party, far ahead of Sinn Féin.
The fact that there are 34 members of the parliamentary party is an important psychological boost. Martin has to try to plot a long-term recovery strategy. That will involve a hard slog up and down the country to try to rebuild the organisation. He could take another leaf out of Kenny’s book on this front.
During his first year as leader, Kenny concentrated on rebuilding the Fine Gael organisation and restoring the morale of ordinary party members. His Dáil performance suffered and the Labour leader Pat Rabbitte outshone him in debate. Kenny was widely mocked in the media for his Dáil performance but the Fine Gael recovery, evident in the result of the local and European elections of 2004, proved his strategy was correct.
Martin has to do something similar. Scoring debating points in the Dáil is of little benefit to Fianna Fáil at this stage. The events of the past few years have so damaged the party’s credibility that the public, for the present at least, is in no mood to listen to what it has to say.
Kenny and the Coalition are getting a honeymoon and that is likely to continue until the summer at least. Martin needs to have the patience to wait for the honeymoon to end and, in the meantime, focus on the tedious work of rebuilding his party.
The next local and European elections are not due for three years, but they have to be the target for the first big step back on the road to recovery. By the summer of 2014, it is almost inevitable that some of the gloss will have worn off the Coalition as by then it will have taken a lot of decisions that will inevitably annoy the public.
Martin cannot ignore the Dáil, with Sinn Féin snapping at his heels, but the long, hard road to recovery begins outside it and that is where he has to go.