IT IS a remarkable but true fact that the party which controls the White House has now lost nine consecutive gubernatorial elections in the commonwealth of Virginia. So, in electing Robert McDonnell on Tuesday, emphatically halting a decade of Democratic advances in the swing state, Republicans did not altogether surprise. Such off-year election successes are not seen as accurate predictors for next year’s mid-terms but they will have cast a pall on President Obama’s celebrations yesterday of his election anniversary.
New Jersey, likewise. No Republican has won statewide office there in more than a decade but on Tuesday Chris Christie defeated Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in a state which Mr Obama carried last year by 15 percentage points. Mr Christie, an Irish-American former US attorney, capitalised on voter anger over taxes and the recession to win comfortably.
By taking both states, Republicans have demonstrated that the president is by no means invulnerable and the victories will be sold hard as a comeback. Democrats will be concerned, as polls show in both states, that without Mr Obama on a ticket the party has difficulty in turning out black, poorer, and younger voters. Turnout by under-30s halved in both states. They will also be concerned by slipping support among those describing themselves as independents, although many may be Republicans returning to their natural home.
For months, polls have shown Independents are increasingly worried by the president’s healthcare efforts and the growth in government spending. The vote will certainly be noted by moderate congressional Democrats facing re-election next year and many may now be more reluctant to support Mr Obama on tough votes on key issues like healthcare and global warming.
But Democrats were understandably taking considerable comfort in the discomfiture of their rivals in upstate New York where a House seat on the Canadian border held by Republicans for 150 years fell victim to that party’s internal ideological war. The contest had attracted widespread national attention as a symbol of the struggle for the soul of a Republican Party now dominated by conservatives. Liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava, a supporter of abortion and gay rights, had been forced out as candidate and her successor was strongly backed with money and high-profile supporters. To no avail. The voters gave the seat to the Democrats, sending an unpalatable message to Republicans nationwide – to be elected they must move to the centre.