SF rank-and-file may need to let off steam

IRA decommissioning, while undoubtedly historic, has not so far delivered "bounce" in Sinn Féin's southern support, writes Mark…

IRA decommissioning, while undoubtedly historic, has not so far delivered "bounce" in Sinn Féin's southern support, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent

Reading through the list of motions going before this weekend's Sinn Féin Ardfheis, one detects a slight grumpiness on the part of the ordinary party member.

For months senior figures, led by party president Gerry Adams, have kept open the possibility that Sinn Féin could be part of the next government in the Republic.

The mention of the idea, which obviously emphasises Sinn Féin's relevance to the Dáil arithmetic next time, drives Fianna Fáil mad since even the possibility of it happening raises questions in the mind of some voters about the truthfulness, or otherwise, of Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's repeated declarations that he would not have anything to do with the party.

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However, the prospect of government within several years is no more attractive to many Sinn Féin rank-and-file, particularly those in the Republic, some of whom suspect that their leadership is, for now, more keen on the idea than they are.

Up to now, the Adams leadership has insisted that Sinn Féin would not enter government unless delegates approved such an action in a special ardfheis, though options should be kept open.

However, the ardfheis motions adopt a much more negative attitude to the prospect.

Not only should Sinn Féin not go into government, but it should not support from the opposition benches the candidacy of any party leader - for which read, support for a minority government led by Ahern.

Even further, some delegates seem wary of letting the leadership decide the timing of a special delegate conference, demanding that a guarantee be given now that such a conference would take place before negotiations begin with any other party, rather than being held afterwards when they could be faced with a fait accompli.

Judging by the negative tone of some of the motions about southern coalition and northern policing, the leadership may feel that the rank-and-file need to let off steam this weekend.

Talk of government and power is, perhaps, premature since Sinn Féin currently holds just five seats in the Dáil, but the reality is that the party has stayed relatively steady in the opinion polls since the last general election, in or around the 10 per cent.

Such a result, if mirrored on polling day, would deliver somewhere between 10 and 15 seats, particularly if the party's long-standing inability to attract transfers is buried once and for all now that the IRA has decommissioned its weapons, credibly in the view of the International Independent Commission on Decommissioning and witnesses.

Besides holding five seats, Sinn Féin intends to target Donegal North East, Donegal South West, Waterford, Wexford and Cork North Central, while Dublin North East and Dublin North West will also be high on the list.

The considerable publicity surrounding the "Rossport Five's" campaign against the Shell gas pipeline in Mayo has brought with it some collateral advantage for the party's county councillor, Jerry Murray, who has been involved in the campaign and who has visited the men in Cloverhill Prison alongside Adams.

Up to recently, the brutally competitive Mayo constituency was not thought to be ripe territory for Sinn Féin, although the increasingly regular visits by Adams to the county marks a growing belief in the chances of Murray, a former Fianna Fáil councillor for Swinford.

He parted company with Fianna Fáil before the 2004 local government elections, where he was comfortably re-elected with 1,255 votes and has now replaced convicted IRA bomber Vincent Wood as the party's standard-bearer in the constituency.

The importance of the "Rossport Five" issue to the party's fortunes in the county is evidenced by the decision to invite Micheál Ó Seighin, one of the men jailed for their opposition to the Shell scheme, to speak to the ardfheis.

Though undoubtedly historic, the IRA's decommissioning has not jump-started the re-creation of the political institutions in Northern Ireland.

Neither has it delivered any "bounce" in the party's support in the Republic, though few in the party necessarily ever believed that it would.

The existence or otherwise of the IRA will make little difference to the opinions of those who in the past voted Sinn Féin, since they clearly did not object to the IRA's campaign, even though some Sinn Féin party members suspect that the decision of the IRA "to go away" means that the party's negotiating hand has been significantly weakened.

"But the IRA decommissioning might help on transfers, getting them and being affected by them. Nicky Keogh wasn't just beaten to the last seat in Dublin Central because of a lack of transfers. He was beaten because too many people voted all the way down the ballot paper to ensure that he didn't get transfers," said one party supporter.

Frequently criticised in the past for not having any policies, Sinn Féin has spent much of the last year or more putting some meat on their bones.

So far, the party has adopted the unusual tactic of telling voters that it would be prepared to put up general taxation to deliver better health and public services, even if the pill is wrapped in a more appealing message about driving up business taxes - which they initially denied they were considering when The Irish Times first reported same some months ago - and clamping down on the banks.