Sharon's Path to Peace

The reckless Israeli raid on a Gaza refugee camp on Thursday night was bound to take a heavy toll. And it did

The reckless Israeli raid on a Gaza refugee camp on Thursday night was bound to take a heavy toll. And it did. Ten Palestinians died, including two UN workers, in the running battles between the camp's inhabitants and the troops, tanks, and helicopters of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF).

In the end the IDF did not find the man they went in to seize, Aiman Shasniyeh, a local leader for the Popular Resistance Committee. But they blew up his house and arrested one of his brothers.

And, meanwhile, the lacklustre Israeli general election campaign promises more of the same. An election, whose only moment of novelty has been the promise to one religious party's voters of a guaranteed place in heaven if they vote the right way, appears set to return the deeply intransigent Likud government of Mr Ariel Sharon.

A survey in yesterday's Yediot Aharonot newspaper points to Likud increasing its presence in the 120-member Knesset in the January 28th elections to 38 seats from 19 now. Labour, the main opposition, would see its share drop from 25 to 21.

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Mr Sharon, on Thursday, unveiled his personal peace plan, seen by many as a cynical and unconvincing pitch for middle-ground Labour supporters. Announcing his support for an eventual Palestinian state and for the "Bush vision", the US roadmap for getting there, Mr Sharon sought to paint himself in a new, moderate light. But "Bush Light" would be a better description of a vision so hedged with preconditions.

Although Mr Sharon supports the idea of a transitional Palestinian authority ahead of full statehood, purged, of course, of its current leader, Mr Yasser Arafat, the state he is talking of consists of only 40 per cent of the West Bank and 70 per cent of Gaza. And he explicitly rejected the timeframe proposed by the US of 2005 for statehood.

Asked if he would close down controversial Jewish settlements, Mr Sharon would only say that there would be "painful compromises". Not surprisingly, Palestinian representatives rejected the package out of hand.

In the wings the international quartet of the US, the UN, the EU, and Russia, is said to be preparing its own blueprint for peace, now likely not to emerge before the elections. It is reported to be set to put serious pressure on both Israelis and Palestinians for concessions. But the mood on the ground does not bode well.