Ariel Sharon's health scare at the weekend, after he suffered a slight stroke, has suddenly underlined for Israelis and a watching world how indispensable his large-girthed figure is in the country's current leadership and in the prospects for a new momentum towards peace negotiations next year. In his message to Mr Sharon yesterday President Bush said he needs him to be healthy if these are to bear fruit.
He advised Mr Sharon to "watch what you eat and start getting some exercise and cutting down the number of work hours". It is prudent advice that will probably be disregarded, since a close adviser said Mr Sharon has been told since 1965 that he needs to go on a diet.
Mr Sharon commands sufficient support to become prime minister of a centrist coalition again after the parliamentary elections on March 28th, despite breaking from his Likud party last month. Most Israelis believe he is the only leader capable of delivering an agreement following his unilateral withdrawal from Gaza last summer and given his determination to consolidate control over the West Bank. Public opinion in Israel consistently favours a two-state settlement. These elections, and the parallel ones taking place next month in the Palestinian territories, can prepare the ground for it.
Mr Sharon has reconfigured Israeli politics by taking these initiatives, confounding those who dismissed him as a warmonger without political skills. On the contrary, he has taken control of the centre ground; and in doing so he helped prepare the way for a shake-up in the Israeli Labour Party, which voted for the radical trade unionist Amir Peretz as leader in a further expression of the public's desire for a settlement with the Palestinians. Mr Sharon's new party, Kadima, looks set to gain the largest number of parliamentary seats. In contrast, the rump of Likud, under its newly elected hardline leader Benjamin Netanyahu, is forecast to lose more than half its representation.
Israeli politics is notoriously volatile, reflecting a raucous democratic style and a complex mixture of ethnic and immigrant groups. Nevertheless, there is an underlying consistency in the desire for a settlement capable of resolving relations with the Palestinians and the Arab world. This prospect looks somewhat nearer after the changes in Israeli politics over the last year.
But it would be unwise to expect too much from Mr Sharon's transformation before it is tested by negotiations dealing with all the final settlement issues. Much of his strategy has been determined by the principle of reculer pour mieux sauter - stepping back to gain an advantage. Israeli control over the West Bank has been reinforced through the settlement of some 400,000 people there including East Jerusalem, by the security barrier/wall still under active construction and the radical restrictions on Palestinians' movement throughout their territories. A fair and balanced settlement cannot be negotiated on this basis, even if Mr Sharon does recover fully.