The Labour Party has touched a six year low in the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll and the Coalition Government is becoming increasingly unpopular with the electorate.
The first part of the message will cause little surprise to Mr Dick Spring and to his parliamentary colleagues in the aftermath of a succession of abysmal by election results. But the second element will be quite unexpected in view of the booming economy, rising standards of living and historic levels of job creation. The public "feel good" factor appears to have evaporated and, with it, the prospect of an early bounce back in the fortunes of Labour.
The gradual erosion of the party's support base has been well charted since Mr Spring led it to a great victory in the 1992 general election and secured 33 Dail seats with 19 per cent of the popular vote. Middle class voters who transferred to Labour on that occasion have now turned their attentions elsewhere. And Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Progressive Democrats would all stand to gain if the opinion poll findings were to be replicated in a general election result.
There is good news for Mr John Bruton and for Fine Gael in the findings. Not alone does public satisfaction with Mr Bruton's performance as Taoiseach continue to improve to 56 per cent but he is now within a single point of Mr Bertie Ahern's showing and, for the first time, four points clear of Mr Spring. The leader of the Progressive Democrats, Ms Mary Harney, continues to lead the "beauty contest" of party leaders with a solid satisfaction rating of 62 per cent. As is the case with Mr Spring, public satisfaction with Mr Proinsias De Rossa's performance has dropped sharply and now stands at 41 per cent.
Support for Fine Gael has continued to edge upwards and, at 26 per cent, is two points higher than last November. More significantly, the party has moved to consolidate its support in Dublin especially in middle class areas where it now draws double the support level of the Labour Party. There are some worrying signs for the party in Leinster, where the BSE scare is having an impact on Government popularity. Overall, however, Mr Bruton will have cause to be pleased with this solid showing.
The message for Fianna Fail is almost unchanged since last November. With 47 per cent of the popular vote, the party is odds on favourite to be involved in the formation of the next government. And the improved showing of the Progressive Democrats, at 7 per cent, suggests that Ms Harney may be involved in those negotiations. The combined strength of the Government parties amounts to only 38 per cent. There is, however, about a year to go until the general election falls due. And, given the proven volatility of the electorate, the fortunes of all the parties could be transformed in that period.