Most serious candidates have all to play for in the European Parliament elections next week, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. The poll shows significant shifts in public opinion between personalities and within parties in the last fortnight while there has been little change in the core vote for the local authority elections. If the trend in today's poll were to continue, there could be a photo-finish in each of the four Euro- constituencies for the last seat.
With less than a week to go to polling on June 11th, it is clear that the personality-based Euro-campaign has generated a high degree of momentum. Some interesting inter-party contests are emerging. Mr Eoin Ryan TD could conceivably catch up on Mr Royston Brady at the end of the day. Ms Ivana Bacik could threaten Mr Proinsias De Rossa's seat in Dublin. Dr Jim McDaid has passed out his rival, Mr Seán Ó Neachtain, in the North-West. But, the most fascinating campaign by far is taking place in East where the vote is evenly divided between Ms Avril Doyle and newcomer to politics, Ms Mairead McGuinness. Fine Gael is in the running for two out of three seats in Leinster.
The poll also shows that there will be many contestants for the last, even second-last, seat in the Euro-constituencies. The fates of Mr Peter Cassells of the Labour Party, Ms Patricia McKenna of the Green Party, Mr Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin and Ms Kathy Sinnott, Independent, will be decided by transfers.
If there have been swings and surprises in the European campaign, however, the local elections are having little impact nationally. The voting intentions in those elections to fill more than 880 seats on various councils and corporations throughout the State have shifted only marginally in the past fortnight. There is no sense that any particular issue is dominating. Based on today's poll findings, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael can expect to lose seats with a much lower first-preference vote than they got in 1999. The Labour Party and the Green Party can hope to make gains. It would seem that Sinn Féin could be the big winners in the local elections with a dramatic increase in their vote.
Whatever the outcome, all parties will attempt to portray the results as a victory. The European elections are an important judgment on the national standing of the candidate, the popularity of the party, satisfaction with the Government and voters' attitude to Europe, among other matters, A good performance in the European elections could be a boost for Fine Gael or any party.
But the barometer of future prospects will be the results in the local elections. The level of Government satisfaction is 34 per cent, down one percentage point in two weeks. In these circumstances, the first preference vote and the number of seats won will be the real indicator as to whether an alternative government can credibly be offered to voters in the next general election.