The Taoiseach tried to kill speculation about potential coalition options after the next election by saying last weekend that politicians would simply have to sit down and work out a deal in the light of the electorate's decision, writes Stephen Collins
It was a clever attempt to keep the focus away from the possibility of an alternative government by ignoring the fact that coalition options presented to the electorate will actually have a huge bearing on the way they vote.
In the last election Fianna Fáil almost sneaked an overall majority because there was no clear alternative government on offer.
The PDs capitalised on this by turning the last few days of the election campaign into a debate about whether Fianna Fáil should be in power on its own or whether the country would be better off with a coalition watchdog in place. The PD strategy paid off, if only just.
With almost 18 months to go before the next election it is clear that the options available to the electorate will be quite different.
With Fine Gael and Labour coming together to present the voters with an alternative, Bertie Ahern knows he will have a battle on its hands to retain power. Fianna Fáil got a huge seat bonus last time out winning 49 per cent of Dáil seats with 42 per cent of the vote. This bonus will inevitably be eroded by the Fine Gael-Labour pact and, if the Fianna Fáil vote drops at all, then a significant number of seats will be lost.
Fine Gael and Labour have so much ground to make up that it is also very difficult to see them winning an overall majority but, if they get more seats than Fianna Fáil, they will have a chance of forming the next government.
The joint programme agreed by the two parties and the way they fight the campaign will determine how well they do. To capture the imagination of the electorate Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte will have to stand for a set of clear and unambiguous policies that are both reassuring and imaginative.
In the end it is likely that one or more of the three smaller Dáil parties, the Greens, the PDs or Sinn Féin, will determine who gets into office. All three pose problems for one or other of the alternative governments.
Both Fianna Fáil and the Fine Gael-Labour alliance have ruled out any deal with Sinn Féin. The Greens have ruled out a deal with Fianna Fáil, while Labour has come as close as possible to ruling out any involvement with the PDs.
However, there may be more wriggle room in all three cases than appears at first sight.
Sinn Féin is expected to be the biggest of the smaller parties when the votes are counted in 2007. In 1997 the party asked its supporters to transfer to Fianna Fáil and it is still likely to have a preference for Fianna Fáil over the alternative.
Even if no formal or informal deal is agreed, there is nothing anybody can do to stop Sinn Féin TDs voting for Bertie Ahern for taoiseach and, if they have the numbers, to elect him.
In the circumstances the Taoiseach could hardly refuse office although he could refuse to have any dealings with Sinn Féin afterwards and then see how things panned out in the Dáil.
The Greens are a different case. At their last annual conference the party members refused to follow their leader to join the Fine Gael-Labour alliance in advance of the election.
They left that option open until after the election but did rule out a deal with Fianna Fáil.
However, the Green TDs have been stung by recent criticism from Fine Gael and appear interested in overtures from elements of Fianna Fáil. The party has been in the Dáil since 1989 and after 20 years it needs to get into government to demonstrate its seriousness.
As for the PDs, the party is open to going in with either side. Clearly, if the numbers are there for another coalition with Fianna Fáil, it will happen, but Mary Harney and Michael McDowell have also raised the prospect of joining the alternative, if the numbers are right.
While Pat Rabbitte has poured scorn on the notion, there may be a chance of it happening if the PDs represent the only way for the Fine Gael-Labour alliance to make it into office.
With all of these options posing problems of one kind or another, some people in Fianna Fáil, the Taoiseach among them, still hanker after a coalition with Labour.
The combination of the two parties would almost certainly have more than the 83 seats required to form a stable government, but the problem is that Pat Rabbitte has ruled it out in any circumstances.
Although many in Fianna Fáil, and even some in Labour, still believe it may happen because of the simple arithmetic of the next Dáil, the chances are remote.
Not only would Mr Rabbitte have to depart, leaving the party with a complicated leadership election as it negotiated a programme for government, but any coalition deal would have to be approved by a delegate conference.
If a cabal attempted to carry the conference with them for a deal with Fianna Fáil, the party could well be torn asunder in the process.
Ultimately it will all depend on whether Fine Gael and Labour can win more Dáil seats than Fianna Fáil and the PDs. Whichever combination is bigger will be in pole position to put a coalition together and win the support of enough Independents to achieve power.
Bertie Ahern demonstrated in 1997 that a stable government can be built on such apparently shaky foundations.