FIANNA Fail delivered a strategic beating to the Government parties during the week when it dictated the timing of the Dublin West and Donegal North East by-elections and maximised its chances of taking both Dail seats.
Within days of Fine Gael's highly successful ardfheis, the party was taught a sharp lesson in political in-fighting. Over-confident in the strength of their Dail majority, the Coalition parties had operated for months on the basis that they would hold the by-elections in May.
And then Fianna Fail struck. With its collective eye off the ball, because of the Northern situation and the up-coming EU presidency, the Government was an easy target.
Bertie Ahern's absence in the United States may have prompted a sense of false security; or the Coalition may have depended too much on old-style parliamentary niceties. Whatever the reason, when Fianna Fail delivered its ultimatum they were in no position to fight back.
Mary O'Rourke's message" was simple and clear: the by-elections would be held in the shortest possible time allowed under the Constitution. And polling day would be April 2nd.
If the Government parties demurred, she told John Bruton, then Fianna Fail would cancel its Dail "pairing" arrangements and vote the writs through. With up to 20 Ministers and Government deputies absent or abroad on various duties, the outcome was assured.
Rather than open their campaigns with a Dail defeat, John Bruton, Dick Spring and Proinsias De Rossa bowed to the inevitable. Within hours, Fianna Fail posters were going up in Dublin West and the party had its campaign under way in Donegal.
By contrast, Fine Gael was in disarray: Tom Morrissey had been chosen in Dublin West but the party will only get around to selecting its Donegal candidate this weekend.
The Labour Party had put some pieces in place, having nominated Senator Moloney in Donegal and Michael O'Donovan in Dublin. But Democratic Left was still undecided about contesting the Dublin West seat.
Fianna Fail's tactical approach wasn't just designed to wrong-foot members of the rainbow Coalition. After last summer's Wicklow disaster, when Mildred Fox tore up the rule book and retained her late father's Independent seat, Fianna Fail jumps at shadows. The by-election intended to pump up Mr Ahern's leadership authority had turned into a slow leak. This time, the party is determined to get it right.
The snap by-elections are designed to deny space and opportunity for manoeuvre to independent candidates and to the smaller parties, which have the capacity to chip away Fianna Fail support. The Wicklow misfortune had been a salutary lesson.
In that contest, Fianna Fail and Dick Roche were lumped in with the Government parties as part of the political establishment. And the highly volatile electorate went looking for an alternative voice before finding it in Mildred Fox.
This time, Harry Blaney is offering to provide that alternative voice in Donegal. But his late brother's vote has been in decline for years, and Fianna Fail has boxed clever by drafting the daughter of a former Blaney deputy, Cecelia Keaveney, as its candidate.
By setting the by-elections for April 2nd, the party has ensured that Donegal campaigning will not coincide with the proposed elections, leading to all-party talks on June 10th, on the other side of the Border.
IN SO far as possible, the Northern troubles have been factored out of the equation. As a result, Pat
Doherty of Sinn Fein and Harry Blaney himself may be denied a highly charged and emotional atmosphere.
Nora Bennis and her National Party are examining their prospects of success in this constituency, which returned one of the highest anti-abortion and anti-divorce votes in the country. And in Dublin West, a founder of the Christian Solidarity Party, Gerard Casey, is offering himself for election.
On the figures Fianna Fail is well ahead of the field in both constituencies. Its problems arise where voting transfers are concerned. Because of its anti-coalition history, the party attracts far fewer preferential votes than its competitors. The danger is that, having headed the polls, its candidates could be overtaken at the post in late counts.
Not that the party is particularly worried about the various Government candidates. No. It's where their votes go on elimination that concerns Mr Ahern.
In 1992, Fianna Fail took 37 per cent of the vote in Donegal North East, compared with 22 per cent for Fine Gael, 11 per cent for Labour and 17 per cent for Neil Blaney.
With the combined Fine Gael and Labour vote well short of a quota, the hope is that the Fine Gael candidate will be ahead of Harry Blaney at elimination time. If he is, then Blaney transfers could be expected to sweep Ms Keaveney into the Dail.
If it goes the other way, then Fine Gael and Labour Party transfers might well favour the Independent candidate.
Dublin West is even more complicated. Last time out, Fianna Fail took 31 per cent of the vote, against 23 per cent for Labour, 14 per cent for Fine Gael, 4 per cent for the Progressive Democrats and 28 per cent for a range of "others".
Once again, the combined Government vote is well short of a quota, but the huge size of the floating vote gives Fianna, Fail the heebie-jeebies.
How would it behave in a long-drawn-out by-election campaign? Would it gravitate towards an Independent or favour a small, fringe party?
Would the shortest possible, 21-day campaign help cement Fianna Fail's regular opinion poll support of almost 50 per cent?
BRIAN Lenihan is a model Fianna Fail candidate: young, personable and able. His late father was extremely popular. And his aunt, who moved the writ, is deputy leader of the party. Given the circumstances, if he doesn't skate home in this by-election, the party is in dire trouble.
Nothing, but nothing, is being taken for granted. Although the Green party secured only 3 per cent of the vote in the last general election, Paul Gogarty is regarded as a threat because of his ability to accumulate transfers.
The same holds true for the Independent candidate, Vincent Jackson. And the political extremes represented by Gerard Casey of Christian Solidarity and Joe Higgins of Militant Labour are carefully checked.
To concentrate attention on the middle ground, the party will fight on the issues of crime, drugs, law and order and unemployment. On that platform, Fianna Fail has a better than even chance of scooping the two seats.
Fine Gael has vague hopes for Dublin West, where it confounded Fianna Fail once before. But, having attained a strategic advantage coming off the political blocks, Mr Ahern, will be hard to shop. Sprinting, rather than staying, power is the name of the game.