The Polish electorate has surprised the pundits by voting for the Solidarity alliance in Sunday's elections - probably putting them back into government in combination with the pro-business Freedom Union. It is an unlikely coalition in many ways, but it now seems that President Aleksander Kwasniewski, of the former communist Democratic Left Party, the losers in this contest, will have to govern for the remaining three years of his term in French-style cohabitation with Solidarity. Poland, like Ireland, has been developing fast in the last few years, fuelled by international investment and strong export growth. This economic buoyancy has given voters confidence to risk a change which may appear to endanger the progress made so far. Solidarity is supported by many workers in state-owned and supported heavy industry whose jobs may come under threat if rationalisation or privatisation proceeds as the Freedom Union party would like to see happen. The balance of power between the two likely government partners and the presidency would mitigate such policies. Recent constitutional changes in Poland have reduced the presidential powers built up by the former Solidarity leader and president, Mr Lech Walesa. But they are still relatively extensive, which is reported to be why the current Solidarity leader, Mr Marian Krzaklewski, is resisting pressure to take on the job of prime minister. He would prefer to hold out for the presidential job in three years' time.
Solidarity under Mr Krzaklewski's leadership waged a very effective election campaign by applying the most up-to-date techniques of canvassing and publicity, after the shock of defeat last time around. He is being credited with learning the lessons of those elections rapidly and well, by modernising Solidarity's organisational framework rather than by changing the basic anti-communist and Catholic convictions which sustained it through a decade of protest during the 1980s. It had also to discard the legacy of Mr Walesa's authoritarian populism, which became more and more of a burden the longer he remained in office as president. Observers will watch with interest to see how much influence he continues to exert as the new government is formed. Poland's political, economic and cultural affairs have become more important and salient for its Irish and other European partners as the country prepares to negotiate membership of the European Union and NATO. In doing so, Poland is asserting its historical claims to national independence against all the uncertainties of its geopolitical position for the last two centuries. Despite the sharp confrontations of this election and the last several years of government by coalitions dominated by the former communists, the end of the Cold War has ensured a cross-party consensus on these deep interests. The same applies to the main contours of economic reform. But within these policy contours, a Solidarity-dominated government would be somewhat more sceptical about the benefits of EU membership as it goes into negotiations with Brussels next year. We will need to learn more about the details of Poland's policy preferences in coming years.