Stalemate in Lebanon

There is no indication that the prolonged political stalemate in Lebanon is near resolution, as mass protests outside government…

There is no indication that the prolonged political stalemate in Lebanon is near resolution, as mass protests outside government headquarters in Beirut go into their 13th day.

Demanding stronger and more effective representation in the cabinet, they are organised by the Shia confessional bloc in alliance with minorities from other groups against the dominant Sunni/Christian/Druze bloc led by prime minister Fouad Siniora. The confrontation is inseparable from the current Middle East conflicts, which are always played out in Lebanon.

Few constructive ideas to tackle the crisis have come forward. And even if it is clear that most Lebanese - including the huge numbers participating in marches supporting these protests - do not want to provoke another civil war, the issues being raised go to the heart of Lebanon's distinctive consociational powersharing system. Renewed in the 1990 Taif accords which brought the last civil war to an end, it guarantees representation to the main confessional groups through a fixed formula, extending deep into this divided society.

Even if the regional conflicts driving this confrontation ease, Lebanon would still have to face the need to reform its constitutional structure. Given that these conflicts are now so intense it is a very difficult task. Each Lebanese bloc blames the other for being a pawn of larger players - Syria and Iran or the United States and allied western powers.

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The presence of a large and more robust United Nations force in southern Lebanon to patrol the ceasefire agreed last August following the summer war between Israel and Hizbullah adds to this complexity.

So does the composition of each side in this domestic confrontation. While Hizbullah leads the bloc demanding reform, it has allies in each of the other communities. Its complaints that it has been disregarded and its decision to withdraw six ministers from the cabinet last month in protest must be taken seriously - even if they do chime in with demands that the investigation of the Hariri assassination last year be suspended or weakened because it points to Syrian efforts to reverse Lebanese independence. And while it may suit Mr Siniora's rump cabinet to identify Syria's role in this way, neither can their position be reduced simply to a proxy for US interests.

Renegotiation of Lebanon's powersharing system is made unavoidable by the depth and duration of this crisis. Despite the peaceableness with which it has been conducted so far, all concerned need to be aware that events can easily be provoked out of their control unless they are really determined to find a better way.