THERE WAS a dreadful inevitability that benighted Lebanon’s prolonged political stalemate would descend once again into fighting. For 18 months a stand-off between the government and the Hizbullah-led opposition, backed by Iran and Syria, has meant the country has struggled on, unable to appoint a president in a dispute over Hizbullah’s insistence on a veto on government decisions and its refusal to countenance disarming.
The latest outburst, which has in six days claimed more than 80 lives, was precipitated by an attempt by the government to close down Hizbullah’s communications network and the firing of Beirut airport’s Shia security chief, who is close to the opposition. Hizbullah said it saw theses moves as a “declaration of war”. Whatever the provocation, however, the offensive by the group, with the support of another militia, Amal, has given the lie to Hizbullah’s oft-repeated pledge that it would not use its guns on Lebanon’s people.
Yesterday, the quietest day in a week, Lebanon’s army, still widely respected on both sides of the divide, but initially worryingly unwilling to keep the peace, stepped up patrols in Beirut as part of a drive to restore order. It is also re-establishing a presence in the Chouf mountains and in the northern town of Tripoli where sporadic fighting continues. But this has only been possible because the government gave the army the right to review the airport and communications decisions, which it promptly did, rescinding them.
In essence, Hizbullah and its allies have achieved on the streets by force of arms what they had been asking for politically: the capacity to veto government decisions that are threatening to Hizbullah’s resistance activities. Prime minister Fouad Siniora described Hizbullah’s actions as tantamount to an attempted coup, but in truth it was more of a bloody reminder of the real balance of forces in Lebanon. Though Hizbullah controls much of Beirut, a dual power reality is now restored. Neither government nor Hizbullah can achieve dominance and rule alone.
Today a delegation from the Arab League flies into Beirut to bang heads together. The agenda will be familiar and both government and opposition are close on key issues, not least electing Lebanese Armed Forces head Gen Michel Suleiman as president. Having demonstrated that it can not be ignored, the onus must now be on Hizbullah leader Sheikh Sayyed Hassan Nasrullah to show that partnership is indeed what his party aspires to.