The show goes on. The Cassandras have once again been proved wrong with none of the potential threats to the continued and unprecedented growth of the economy materialising during the last 12 months.The property market did not collapse. The US economy did not falter. Oil prices spiked, but did no lasting damage. Also absent were the many unspecified "external shocks" that fill the same space in the imaginations of economists as do bogey men in minds of small children.
The official figures are not yet in but the general consensus is that the economy grew by 6 per cent or more in 2006, making it once again the envy of Europe. Something similar in growth terms is on the cards for next year.
But despite all of this, a sense of unease remains; a view that we have got away with it for another year and that 2007 may yet be the year of economic reckoning. While some may argue that all this indicates is a residual lack of economic self-confidence, there are also sound reasons for not straying beyond cautious optimism when looking ahead to 2007.
Unless the Irish economy is to cause economic text books to be even further rewritten, it must eventually enter a downswing, although a recession is by no means inevitable. The proverbial soft landing is still very much a possibility.
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The triggers for this reverse may not have materialised this year thankfully, but they remain latent and in some cases have intensified. We are more dependant than ever on the construction sector, which now accounts for one in every four jobs created this year. A significant amount of economic activity - something in the region of a quarter - now involves people who directly or indirectly derive income from the property and construction sector. While certain unique aspects of the Irish economy might explain this they do not make it sustainable in the long term.
Rising interest rates have had some success in cooling the market, particularly in the second half of the year. But house prices still rose by 11.5 per cent nationally during 2006. At least two further rate rises are predicted in the coming year but it is unlikely these alone will prove sufficient to put the sector on a more sustainable footing, where growth rates match the overall level of economic progress. A crisis in the property market remains the single biggest threat to the economy.
Desirable though it may be, an orderly slowdown in construction will bring its own problems, as highlighted by Fás in its review of 2006. The State training agency predicts job growth will fall from 4.5 per cent this year to 2.8 per cent next year if construction activity falls.
Many other domestic concerns also remain. Enterprise Ireland put its best foot forward in the week running up to the holidays, pointing out that Irish-owned companies had increased export sales by €1 billion during the year. Companies backed by the agency added 1,200 jobs. But with inflation set to hit 6 per cent fears about the competitiveness of Irish companies persist. Progress towards the acknowledged remedy - an uplift in competitiveness through innovation and investment in research - is by its nature extremely hard to measure. Simple figures for the amount of money spent each year on such projects tell only part of the story.
The Economic and Social Research Institute in its final bulletin of the year flagged a fresh problem. Much of the current consumer boom is now being funded indirectly by foreign banks. While it is too early to draw any definite conclusions the ESRI warns this may leave the economy vulnerable to a credit squeeze if international sentiment towards Ireland shifts.
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Other external threats have not diminished. The fortunes of our multinational export-dominated economy are particularly sensitive to the performance of the US. And the prognosis is mixed at best, with most commentators pointing to lower economic growth there in 2007.
This year also saw a number of new additions to the growing list of global economic trip-wires, the most visible of which was the rash of global deal-making that propelled stockmarkets to record levels. Ireland was not immune from this trend with deals valued at €15.5 billion done in the domestic market.
It is inevitable that comparison should be made between the current frenzy of takeovers and the mania that gripped the markets in 2001. Many argue that the current boom is more broadly based but technology companies are in the thick of it, not least Google which paid $1.65 billion for YouTube.
There is good reason to expect that 2007 will see a peak in the stockmarkets, but it may result in nothing more dramatic than the hiatus visited on the markets after the dot.com crash. However, Ireland felt that reverse particularly badly because of our exposure to the sector. This is unlikely to be repeated to the same extent should the markets take a turn for the worse next year.
The list of potential pitfalls goes on and on. While it is prudent to take cognisance of them, dwelling on them is not necessarily productive. It is reassuring however that the Government has decided to give itself a cushion - in the form of a fiscal surplus - in the coming year despite the pressures associated with next year's general election.This should allow some tweaking of economic policy should things go wrong. But, as 2006 draws to a close, it is not unreasonable to hope the doomsayers will be confounded once again.