The German election outcome has a message for Irish voters if they want to take it. The striking feature of the result was not the shift towards the Social Democrats, and the likely emergence of Olaf Scholz as the next chancellor; it was the strength of centre ground political parties and the decline of the extreme right and left.
Scholz dragged the Social Democrats back from the dead not by proclaiming the need for radical change and the overthrow of the existing order but by presenting himself as the best bet to continue the political stability and moderate policies followed by Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrat chancellor with whom he served for the past four years.
What a contrast with this country, where the signs are that the voters are being swayed in considerable numbers to back those advocating radical economic change, coupled with vociferous demands for a united Ireland. It increasingly seems that in this country the centre ground is not the place to be.
It is hardly a surprise that Johnson's government is insisting that most of the problems are Covid-related and claiming that other countries are also struggling with supply-chain issues arising from the pandemic
Irish politics has always differed from the European norm. When a clear left-right divide was in place across the continent we had two almost interchangeable centre parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Now that many European countries have been won over to the benefits of centrist politics it appears that Ireland may well embark on a radical course involving extreme nationalism coupled with hostility to the free market economy.
Bulwark of decency
In his recent book, Why the Germans Do it Better, British journalist John Kampfner outlined how Germany has come to stand as a bulwark of decency and stability in a world shaken by the dangerous and bizarre behaviour of former US president Donald Trump and threatened by a powerful China and a vengeful Russia.
Kampfner’s target audience was a British public which has succumbed to the charms of Boris Johnson, a populist leader who has abandoned the claims of rational national self-interest in favour of the nostalgic pursuit of a vanished past.
This has involved beating the patriotic drum, demonising the European Union and threatening to walk away from the international agreement to which he signed up a little over a year ago.
The damaging consequences of the British flight from reality are there for Irish people to see in the current shortages in supermarkets and petrol stations
Taking back control was the slogan that persuaded the British public to vote to leave the EU, while getting Brexit done was the promise that won Johnson his majority in 2019.
That has now led to empty shelves in supermarkets, queues at petrol stations, and pleas for European poultry workers and lorry drivers to come back across the English Channel in time for the Christmas rush. That is the reality now unfolding in Britain as the country struggles with a supply-chain crisis.
It is hardly a surprise that Johnson’s government is insisting that most of the problems are Covid-related and claiming that other countries are also struggling with supply-chain issues arising from the pandemic. In fact, the rest of Europe has no petrol shortage and has managed to keep supermarket shelves stocked even though it does not have enough lorry drivers either.
Current crisis
There is simply no arguing that Brexit has been a huge factor in the current crisis engulfing the UK. About 14,000 EU drivers left Britain last year, while thousands of workers in the food industry have also gone back to their home countries.
That the British government is having to issue emergency visas shows its reliance on non-British workers. The huge irony is that the Brexiteers blamed continentals for taking jobs from British workers but the UK is now learning the hard way just how much it depends on EU labour, particularly in the food and logistics industry.
Earlier this month the UK government announced that because of the supply-chain issues, it would again postpone the required paperwork and post-Brexit checks on goods entering the UK from the EU. In contrast, the EU has had its checks in place for British exporters since January. This has given Irish and other EU suppliers a competitive advantage over their UK peers, as they don’t have to comply with onerous customs checks.
Asked by UK journalists whether he would send truck drivers to Britain, the ever restrained Scholz said, “The free movement of labour is part of the European Union and we worked very hard to convince the British not to leave the union … I hope they will manage the problems coming from that.”
The damaging consequences of the British flight from reality are there for Irish people to see in the current shortages in supermarkets and petrol stations. The irony is that those in this country who most enjoy Brit bashing want us to follow the example of our nearest neighbour by indulging in the pursuit of ultra nationalist claims as well as the “f**k business” philosophy of Boris Johnson.
The big challenge for those in the government parties here over the next few years will be to rebut the widely touted narrative that this country is akin to a failed state when in fact it is one of the most successful small economies on the globe. If the centre parties are unable to do that the Irish electorate may find out all too soon what radical change really means.