Still hope for centre ground

Some would have it that the SDLP and Ulster Unionism, as the "centre ground" of Northern politics, were largely responsible for…

Some would have it that the SDLP and Ulster Unionism, as the "centre ground" of Northern politics, were largely responsible for the architecture of the Good Friday agreement, and dictated the shape of power-sharing in Stormont. Nothing like the whole truth, and just as well, writes Fionnuala O'Connor.

Look at it like that, and the story since is of a sad decline, the DUP and Sinn Féin sweeping forward to relegate the older parties. Stand back a little, and negotiations and micro-management from ceasefires to stumbling devolution form a different narrative.

In terms of votes, the fact that the UUP and SDLP now trail in behind the new standard-bearers has stripped out former status, and, arguably, much self-esteem. Even the amateur politics-watcher must occasionally blink at what looks like the neglect of Sir Reg Empey and Mark Durkan by both British and Irish governments. Durkan is not disposed to be overlooked; Empey, by contrast, seems almost indifferent.

The real story is of necessary realignment. There was a built-in hazard for the former leading parties from the start. Ending the Troubles was always going to bring brick-bats after bouquets. What began with IRA/British, IRA/Dublin and IRA/John Hume contacts had to draw republicans into politics or fail.

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Energy, cunning and ruthlessness devoted to violence, when rerouted to politics, were always likely to put the SDLP into hot contention with Sinn Féin. Republicans in negotiation were a shock to systems all round. For a brief period, those negotiations also allowed a role to smaller parties, including the short-lived loyalist fringe groups and the Women's Coalition; both played well beyond their numerical strength.

The challenges of a nationalist-inspired peace process taxed David Trimble's leadership, and Ulster Unionism, well beyond their limits. Anti-Good Friday unionists enjoyed deriding Trimble but eventually had to begin to contemplate powersharing or face permanent irrelevance.

Which brings us to the present. Conventional wisdom says the election billed for March 7th will boost Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams and further shrink the "centre ground" and any benefit will go to "the extremes". Conventional wisdom is very conventional. The North's centre ground is not a tranquil, expansive, inclusive place, nor ever has been. Outsiders look with more hope than locals to the Alliance party, routinely described as "cross-community" as though that guaranteed vibrant policy-making.

Alliance leaders have sounded too often like minor-key unionists rather than any kind of third way. But the party scored the coup of a drab pre-election phase by producing the first ethnic minority candidate, the sparky Anna Lo of the Chinese Welfare Association. The publisher of a magazine for new Polish residents, meanwhile, says she finds Alliance - and Ulster Unionists, which might surprise some - most in touch with the needs of foreign workers. (Of the 6,200 immigrants from 25 countries on the electoral register, Poles are the largest group at almost 2,000.)

Electoral politics is in transition, as is Northern society. Adams has been by far more candid about his intentions but neither DUP nor Sinn Féin leaders are what they were. Republicans have been forced under the spotlight to deliver soundbites at least on policing. The development of individuals in the republican shadows may be more interesting still.

The last constraints have gone, the final worry about "taking the base with us". Years of tinkering with taboos now jettisoned leave some jumpy and anxious about the next phase. There are plenty of signs that the Sinn Féin leadership is more conservative than otherwise. Not for the first time, in contrast to near-silence from the Adams-McGuinness team, it has been left to SDLP leader Mark Durkan to voice civil libertarian criticism of the new Westminster justice and security bill. As it emerges that soldiers may stop, search and make arrests in Northern Ireland, unlike the rest of the UK, and that the Human Rights Commission may investigate alleged abuse dating only from August of this year, Sinn Féin's willingness to take Tony Blair's word about MI5's accountability looks ever more feeble.

It is still possible that the DUP will stall and back itself into hibernation. It is also possible, and more likely, that a new Paisley pattern is replacing the autocracy of an age when the DUP's purpose was largely harassment.

In the past the loudest voice silenced rare questions. During the party's recent short-lived consultation exercise, the leader had occasion to raise that voice and remind questioners of his position. There was no question of expulsion. The revelation that DUP election candidates must pre-sign resignation letters and face hefty fines for breaking party discipline suggests all the old autocratic spirit, but also a machine with a team of minders. A juggernaut in mid-turn is liable to knock people down and churn up verges. In another election or two, the centre ground might be the place to watch.