THE IDEA that the major unresolved differences between Sudan and its seceding South Sudan provinces could be resolved amicably once the latter were granted independence last year was always the most pious of hopes. Even the line between the two states had not been agreed, let alone the much more vexed issue of how the north would be compensated for the $7 billion budget hole that the loss of its oil wells represented. And so, despite the new flag being hoist in Juba to great celebration, the fighting continued – north-south, and among the south’s querulous tribes.
The latter disputes have displaced some 200,000 internally, while a further 100,000 refugees have fled south from clashes between Sudanese government troops and Juba-backed rebels in the Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile provinces. Now weeks of border clashes, including aerial bombing raids on civilian targets by Khartoum jets, have raised concerns that the two states could return to all-out war, and both the African Union (AU) and UN have become engaged in desperate attempts to pull the situation back from the brink.
Permanent members of the UN Security Council and South Africa have been meeting to discuss a US draft resolution that threatens both states with “additional measures”, likely to include arms embargoes and travel bans, under article 41 of the UN Charter. It allows the council to impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on states that ignore its decisions. China and Russia, however, are opposed to a reference to article 41 but may yet back a diluted resolution. The AU’s Peace and Security Council has strongly urged both sides to cease hostilities and withdraw troops from disputed areas.
In response to Khartoum’s seizure of oil shipments South Sudan in February halted oil production and now says any oil revenue-sharing deal is off the table, though it is willing to submit border issues to international arbitration. Sudan has imposed a trade embargo against Juba which, in turn, has been forced to impose massive state spending cuts. Now the cutbacks, fighting and the refugee situation have begun to make the food situation critical. But with grandstanding on both sides, the ghost of the 22-year civil war that the landmark peace deal was supposed to have laid, seems irresistibly to be returning.