Summit gets lost in a cloud of uncertainty over Russia's future

Some of the Russian press are calling it "The Summit of the Lame Ducks"

Some of the Russian press are calling it "The Summit of the Lame Ducks". Which is going too far - they still have fingers on nuclear buttons - but it was a summit of two Presidents under severe domestic pressure and it decided very little.

Hanging over all the trappings of motorcades and banquets was the total uncertainty about the political and economic future of Russia.

The first question Mr Yeltsin was asked in the Kremlin yesterday after the summit was from a Russian journalist who pointed out that hardly anyone believed anything could come out of the meeting "due to the known difficulties both in Russia and America." How could the two leaders now claim that it was worthwhile?

It was a foreign journalist who asked President Yeltsin the tough question about what happens if his choice for prime minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, is again rejected by the Communists and their allies in the Duma.

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Since Mr Yeltsin dismissed the Sergei Kiriyenko government last week, throwing grave doubts on the continuation of progress to an open economy, Russia has been without a stable system as it grapples with its worst economic crisis since the end of the communist regime.

There is nothing President Clinton, the US or the rest of the world can do for Russia until it finds its own solution. That message emerged clearly from this summit.

Mr Yeltsin's answer shows that neither he nor anyone else can know what is going to happen in the coming weeks. As the world's media gathered in the Kremlin's Catherine Hall waited for his words, the Russian leader thought for a while and then, speaking very slowly, said:

"Well, I must say, we will witness quite a few events for us to be able to achieve all those results . . . That's all."

There was laughter at the non-answer, but also a grudging acknowledgment that the man who is daily written off as a sickly leader on the way out still has his political wits about him.

Even more admiring of the Russian's evasiveness was President Clinton beside him, who had been asked by the same journalist about how he felt about the widespread criticism of his speech admitting to an affair with Monica Lewinsky as not apologetic enough.

"That's my answer, too. That was pretty good," Mr Clinton said approvingly of the Yeltsin answer from the Bunny Carr school, knowing full well it would not be enough to satisfy his own media.

He knew, of course, that the question was coming - the US press finds this story far more enthralling than the summit - so he tried yet again to get the Lewinsky affair consigned to some trash bin of history. Some hope.

Later President Clinton met parliamentary leaders who for the moment hold Mr Yeltsin's fate in their hands. He told these politicians that any roll-back of the economic reforms begun under Mr Yeltsin would be disastrous for Russia.

Russia cannot defy the rules of the road in today's global economy, Mr Clinton told these tough Russian politicians who are already manoeuvring to replace Mr Yeltsin or at least strip him of some of his far reaching powers under the constitution.

But if Russia will stick to the reform road and avoid going back to an economy firmly under state control as in the old days, then it could depend on US support and that of international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Specifically, Mr Clinton warned them that whatever government came to power, Russia should not try to spend its way out of its problems by printing more and more roubles. Taxation, at present a sick joke in Russia, should be established as a part of economic life as in western countries and be applied fairly.

Mr Yeltsin made it clear that he is getting this message, even if his nomination of Mr Chernomyrdin sent the wrong signal to the rest of the world. He acknowledged there had been mismanagement of the economy under his rule, but "still we need to conclude our reforms, to bring them to completion, and consequently to get results", he said in the Kremlin yesterday.

But he also made it clear that this will not come initially from more hand-outs from the US or the IMF, although they would be welcome when the political system got back on track. He also sounded naive about how this could happen.

"What we need from the United States is political support to the effect that the United States is in favour of reforms in Russia. This is what we really need, and then all the investors who would like to come to the Russian reformed market will do so, will come with their investments," Mr Yeltsin declared confidently.

Outside the Kremlin walls, Russians walked around Red Square showing little interest in what was going on inside. Where once the huge GUM emporium on the other side of the square provided cheap goods for the consumer under communism, today it is Christian Dior and the United Colors of Benetton which offer their highly-priced wares.

At the Kazan Cathedral in the corner of the square, I saw a soldier going in to light a candle with other worshippers. Before Mr Yeltsin's time he could have been sent to a gulag or worse for that.

There are enormous changes under way in Yeltsin's Russia, but something has gone very badly wrong which now threatens the direction of change. Democracy has been installed, but that has not been enough, and the selling off of state assets has led to the worst corruption.

What was depressing yesterday was the responses of the two wounded leaders. It was words, words, words but little indication that there was light at the end of the tunnel. And here President Clinton was naive.

It would have been worth his while coming all the way to Moscow, he said, for him to tell the Russian people that "there is light at the end of this tunnel, there is an end to this process and it could come quickly if these laws are passed in the Duma and the things that the President has asked for already are done and some decisions are made".

He sounded more convincing when he spelled out what will happen "if other political forces in Russia try to force the President to abandon reform in midstream or even reverse it."

"What I think will happen is even less money will come into Russia, and even more economic hardship will result." That had been "the experience of every other country", President Clinton said.

The problem is that for a lot of Russians this has been their experience since Mr Yeltsin brought in his reforms. They are now looking for another leader to do better, and the new man will find he needs help from the communists to survive. And they will have their price.