Sweden and the euro

The decision to hold a referendum in Sweden on membership of the euro comes at a time when the currency's governing system is…

The decision to hold a referendum in Sweden on membership of the euro comes at a time when the currency's governing system is being reformed and developed.

The euro's sustainability and widespread use by Sweden's trading partners has prompted the cross-party decision to hold the vote next September. In turn it highlights the position of Denmark, which voted against joining in September 2000 - and of the United Kingdom, which is to decide by next June whether conditions are right to have a referendum on joining before the next general election.

Sweden's strong industrial economy has been built up on the basis of easy access to the worldwide markets which have sustained it for the last hundred years. The euro issue divides most of the parties, but some much more than others. The balance within the governing Social Democrat-led coalition favours entry; but it could be a close-run thing according to the most recent opinion polls.

They have been affected by the latest debate on how the single currency should be governed. As the European economy has turned from slow growth to mild recession the fiscal conditions laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact have taken the strain and been found wanting. Contrasts between the treatment of large and smaller economies have been exposed, which have swung some Swedes against joining. By the time they vote more even-handed reforms in the governing regime may have made it more acceptable.

READ MORE

Swedish voters will also take account of the British decision on the euro next June. The Treasury is due by then to report on whether the single currency measures up to the five tests concerning economic convergence laid down in 1997. This will be at least as much a political as an economic judgment. The latest indications are of differing perspectives by the prime minister, Mr Blair and the chancellor, Mr Brown. Mr Blair has repeated his enthusiasm for joining the euro if the tests are met, based on his conviction that the case for doing so could be won in a referendum and that this would bring Britain closer to the heart of Europe. Mr Brown remains unconvinced it would suit the UK. Behind that difference of emphasis lies a deeper question of political rivalry between the two men, which makes the whole issue very uncertain.

Undoubtedly Swedish, British and Danish membership of the euro would strengthen the system, along with reforms in its management. Whether that happens is down to political decisions and choices.