German, French and British foreign ministers recognised yesterday that their 30-month effort to convince Iran that it should not resume enriching nuclear fuel has failed. They want the issue referred to the United Nations Security Council and will recommend this course to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
It is an important moment in their mutual diplomatic engagement, which attempted to find an agreement on this contentious issue rather than open up the possibility of sanctions or even military action against Iran. While such action is most unlikely in the short term because of the balance of the international forces involved, the development adds to political and economic uncertainty in the Middle East region and impact on energy prices.
Iran is entitled to enrich nuclear fuel for energy under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which it is a signatory - but not to develop nuclear weapons. It insists this week's removal of UN seals from its enrichment plant at Natanz is for peaceful purposes. But the political effects of the decision are clearcut, since it implies a rejection of diplomacy and the pursuit of a unilateral course. At the IAEA, Russia and China now seem unlikely to block reference to the Security Council, despite their extensive nuclear and oil trade and their investments in Iran. But they will resist anything other than token sanctions. Internationally there is significant sympathy and respect for Iran's security problems. It is surrounded by nuclear powers in Israel, India and Pakistan and faces long-term hostility from the United States, where neo-conservatives and nationalists demand that it be disciplined, despite the potential overstretch of US military resources.
Much of that respect has evaporated in recent months following the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president last June. His repeated statements that Israel should be "wiped off the map" and growing worries about his links with radical Islamic movements have affected international attitudes and caused otherwise sympathetic states to think twice about defending Iran's right to develop peaceful nuclear energy. The balance of power between clerical fundamentalists and reformers inside the country has swung decisively in the former's direction after the elections.
Externally, the Iranian conservatives' position has been bolstered by events in Iraq, where Shia Muslims influenced by Iran are increasingly dominating the emerging political process. They know that there will be resistance to any radical moves against Iran for fear of the effects on world oil supplies and prices. Military action would copperfasten nationalist support for the Iranian leadership and would anyway be difficult because underground facilities are scattered all over the country.
Despite the regrettable failure of this round of European diplomacy, the attempt to deal with these issues by negotiation rather than force must not be abandoned. The world would be a more dangerous place were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. That is why political efforts to prevent that happening must be continued, even as levels of international tension are ratchetted up. ...