TAIWAN'S VOTERS have delivered a decisive verdict on future relations with China by choosing the Kuomintang nationalist Ma Ying-jeon over the pro-independence candidate, Frank Hsieh, in Saturday's presidential election and in rejecting referendum proposals that Taiwan should join the United Nations.
In doing so they have expressed a clear preference to develop their already much closer economic and cultural ties with the mainland towards a more long-term political understanding, confirming the results of January's legislative elections, which Mr Ma's party also won.
Speaking after the result, Mr Ma repeated his criticism of China's repression in Tibet, even hinting at a possible Olympic boycott by Taiwan; but he insisted that this will not prejudice his own convergence policy with China. For Beijing, the result is a great relief, as it has come under huge international pressure on Tibet, which threatens to jeopardise the August Olympics. Mr Ma's victory in the only properly democratic vote in a Chinese territory could allow pursuance of a more accommodating approach on Tibet. But there is little or no sign that Beijing is willing to take such a softer line.
Otherwise conditions are right for closer relations to develop between Taiwan and the mainland. Already there has been a huge flow of investment there from Taiwan, which can only grow as China's industrialisation proceeds. In fact there are fears that Taiwan's own prosperity has been affected by this development. Tourism has so far been overwhelmingly one way as well. Both are set to change, as Chinese have more freedom to travel and invest across the Strait of Taiwan and banking and other services such as charter flights follow that trend.
Gradually there has been a political convergence in Taiwan reflecting such developments. Both the Kuomintang Nationalists and the Democratic Progressive Party support closer relations with the mainland, not an aggressive stand-off recalling earlier periods of confrontation. Their disagreements concern the pace and extent of normalisation rather than whether it should take place. Mr Ma's "three Nos" - to independence, unification and military conflict - are predicated on a 50-year period of convergence, by which time it is expected China will itself have changed beyond recognition.